Who Were the Luckiest and Unluckiest MLB Hitters in May?
Hitters With an Inflated BABIP
Over the past month, a league-average MLB hitter produced a .294 BABIP to go along with a 19.9% line-drive rate (LD%), 44.5% ground-ball rate (GB%), 35.6% fly-ball rate (FB%) and a 31.9% hard-hit rate (Hard%).
While not all of the below hitters had a below-average hard-hit rate in May, some of their other batted-ball data told us their BABIP was much higher than it probably should've been.
| Rank | Name | BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Domingo Santana | .448 | 23.0% | 49.2% | 27.9% | 27.9% |
| 2 | Xander Bogaerts | .418 | 21.5% | 53.8% | 24.7% | 34.4% |
| 3 | Jean Segura | .414 | 16.8% | 55.4% | 27.7% | 34.7% |
| 4 | Eric Hosmer | .404 | 24.7% | 53.8% | 21.5% | 26.9% |
| 5 | Yolmer Sanchez | .403 | 26.4% | 44.4% | 29.2% | 18.9% |
| 6 | Chris Owings | .400 | 18.4% | 44.7% | 36.8% | 26.9% |
| 7 | Mark Reynolds | .387 | 19.4% | 41.8% | 38.8% | 28.4% |
| 8 | Ian Desmond | .364 | 19.2% | 57.7% | 23.1% | 31.7% |
| 9 | Avisail Garcia | .354 | 23.2% | 53.7% | 23.2% | 31.7% |
| 10 | Aledmys Diaz | .349 | 23.8% | 46.3% | 30.0% | 23.8% |
| 11 | Michael Brantley | .329 | 19.5% | 51.2% | 29.3% | 29.3% |
Nothing New Here
His BABIP isn't necessarily out of the ordinary, but it's the way Eric Hosmer is arriving at it. Sure, that .404 mark from May isn't a sustainable number, but his .337 BABIP so far this year isn't too far off his .312 career mark.
What hasn't changed, though, is the fact that he hits way too many ground balls for a hitter with the potential to hit 20-plus homers. Hosmer's season-long ground-ball rate is currently sitting at 56.9%, and it'd be the fourth consecutive season it's been over 50.0% if he keeps this up. While his fly-ball rate has never been high, the 19.8% mark he's sporting after two months of play is alarming -- especially for someone with a 15.2% homer-to-fly-ball ratio.
The first baseman (and impending free agent) did help erase his slow start in April thanks to a tweak in his approach on inside fastballs, but with just 5 homers through his first 217 plate appearances, it's going to be tough to match the 25 he hit in 2016 given his batted-ball profile.
Opposite Ends of the Spectrum
Being a position player for the Colorado Rockies is normally a wonderful thing because of the gloriousness that is Coors Field. Mark Reynolds has been taking full advantage of this, while Ian Desmond is still trying to figure things out.
Despite a continued increase in ground balls, paired with decreases in line drives and fly balls, Reynolds is off to a tremendous start that includes a 129 wRC+ and .395 wOBA. His 13 homers already match his 2015 total, and is just one off his total from last year, all while sporting a healthy 28.6% homer-to-fly-ball ratio.
And if you're wondering, he's getting a boost from Coors -- his homer-to-fly-ball ratio is 40.0% at home, but just 15.0% on the road.
On the other hand, Desmond is finding it hard to get himself going. He's been hitting a lot of grounders in recent years (at least a 50.0% ground-ball rate since 2014), but he's at a Hosmer-like 59.3% so far this year, along with a 22.2% fly-ball rate that's on pace to be a career low. Unlike his teammate, Desmond isn't taking advantage of Coors just yet -- his ground-ball rate climbs to 60.5% at home, which has helped lead to a paltry wRC+ of 27.
Deja Vu All Over Again
We didn't highlight Avisail Garcia on last month's version of this exercise, but he's no stranger to posting an inflated BABIP this season. If you think that .354 mark from May is a little high, it actually pales in comparison to the .443 he produced in April. Based off how he arrived at those numbers, it's not surprising to already see his performance in this category start to tumble. It's still pretty high, though.
Garcia's overall hard-hit rate of 31.6% is actually lower than last year (34.4%), which ended with a disappointing wRC+ of 86. He's also swinging more than ever, with a 58.7% swing rate entering action on Thursday ranking second to only Corey Dickerson (59.6%). With a contact rate (73.5%) that hasn't seen a tremendous uptick compared to years past, his strong start to the year still doesn't seem sustainable.
