Fantasy Baseball: 5 Buy-Low Options for Season-Long Leagues
Luis Castillo, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Luis Castillo's 2017 debut was fantastic as he displayed the ability to get whiffs while also generating a pristine batted-ball profile. That makes our heart go pitter-patter.
But in 2018, Castillo hasn't lived up to the lofty expectations the fantasy community had for him when they drafted him as a top-30 starting pitcher, per NFBC's average draft position (ADP) data. ESPN's Player Rater has Castillo 140th among starters, and his numbers have dipped -- some in a big way -- across the board, with the Cincinnati Reds' righty losing his eye-catching batted-ball marks.
| Season | Strikeout Rate | Walk Rate | Swinging-Strike Rate | Hard-Hit Rate | Ground-Ball Rate | SIERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 27.3% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 29.6% | 58.4% | 3.63 |
| 2018 | 21.5% | 7.9% | 14.0% | 38.3% | 44.6% | 4.13 |
Castillo has underwhelmed -- there's no arguing that -- and the spike in hard-hit rate coupled with the steep drop in ground-ball rate is troublesome. Lefties have killed him as he's surrendered a .384 wOBA, 44.7% hard-hit rate and 39.6% fly-ball rate in the split.
But strikeouts can mask a lot. Castillo's 21.5% strikeout rate is a touch below the league average (22.3%), but his sky-high swinging-strike rate hints at some positive regression in the strikeout department. Castillo had a much better strikeout rate a year ago despite a markedly worse swinging-strike rate.
Among qualified pitchers, Castillo's swinging-strike rate checks in sixth, but his strikeout rate pales in comparison to that of the other leaders in swinging-strike rate.
| Pitcher | Swinging-Strike Rate | Strikeout Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 16.7% | 34.5% |
| Chris Sale | 16.0% | 37.2% |
| Jacob deGrom | 15.4% | 30.7% |
| Patrick Corbin | 14.3% | 30.4% |
| Gerrit Cole | 14.1% | 35.2% |
| Luis Castillo | 14.0% | 21.5% |
| James Paxton | 13.8% | 32.2% |
Castillo is going to be prone to the occasional blowup outing -- especially at home -- if his hard-hit rate stays where it is. However, he should produce more punchouts going forward if he can maintain this kind of swinging-strike rate, and that's enough to make him a worthwhile buy-low dart throw.
