Fantasy Baseball: 10 Hitters Who Could Bounce Back in 2019
Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 84
Depth Charts: 637 PA, 92 R, 24 HR, 76 RBI, 4 SB, .284 AVG
THE BAT: 646 PA, 85 R, 24 HR, 87 RBI, 3 SB, .281 AVG
Coming off a lost season in which he only played 26 games and underwent both Tommy John and arthroscopic hip surgery, Corey Seager is barely going inside the top 100 in NFBC drafts, and while his recovery has evidently gone smoothly, he isn't a sure thing for Opening Day, which could further drop his draft stock. There's obvious risk in taking a player coming off major surgeries, and how Seager performs in spring training could go a long way toward determining your level of confidence.
But if Seager proves to be healthy and regains his prior form, the return on investment could be a good one. Seager owns a rock-solid .302/.372/.494 slash line through 355 career games, and he slugged more than 20 home runs in each of his two full seasons (2016 and 2017). Although a career-high of 26 homers is somewhat modest by today's standards, his career 41.6% hard-hit rate is encouraging, and he'll turn only 25 at the end of April.
Additionally, there were encouraging signs of Seager's power upside in 2017. His elbow issues date back to the second half of that season, and while it's hard to pinpoint exactly when it started bothering him, there was a notable drop in his power output from August onward. From April through July, Seager slugged 19 home runs with a .226 ISO, .390 wOBA, and 48.7% hard-hit rate. But in the final two months he hit only 4 home runs with a .100 ISO, .311 wOBA and 35.4% hard-hit rate.
His average exit velocity also saw a notable drop that year, going from 91.4 miles per hour (MPH) over the first four months to 86.7 MPH over the final two. Obviously, we shouldn't extrapolate too much from one partial season, but it isn't a stretch to wonder if there's 30-homer potential in a healthy Seager.
Unlike many of his shortstop brethren, Seager isn't much of a threat on the basepaths -- he's never stolen more than four bags in a season -- so you'll have to find speed elsewhere. But assuming he's batting second again in a strong Dodgers lineup, we have to like his overall potential as a four-category contributor.
Considering the health risks and lack of speed, Seager isn't a guy to go out of your way to reach for, but he's definitely worth considering around his current ADP, and he'd be easy to get excited about if he drops out of the top 100 in your draft.
