DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 6/28/18
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Aaron Nola ($12,100 on DraftKings): On this short four-game slate, Aaron Nola stands out ahead of Lance McCullers as the top pitcher to use. He's got a 25.1 percent strikeout rate, 1.02 WHIP and 3.25 xFIP, and limits opponents to just a 26.8 percent hard-hit rate. He's taking on a Washington Nationals team that isn't necessarily a great matchup, due to their limited 21.7 percent strikeout rate as a team, but there also isn't that much to be concerned about as their 90 wRC+ ranks 23rd in the Majors.
Low-Priced Pitcher
Junior Guerra ($8,200): It's a small slate and pitching is pretty ugly, so Junior Guerra might be the best low-priced option. He's got the fourth (out of eight) best strikeout rate at 23.3 percent and his 1.17 WHIP is also pretty solid. He has a tough matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, who don't strike out much and have solid run production, however, Guerra has been pitching well as of late. Over his last five games, he has gone six innings three times and struck out seven three times as well. That amounted to 15-plus DraftKings points in four of those five games, even without picking up the win for the four-point boost.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
J.D. Martinez ($5,600): J.D. Martinez is one of the best hitters in all of baseball, and he is even more exceptional against right-handed pitching. He has crushed righties this season, putting up an insane .452 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and .366 isolated power (ISO). Tonight, the Boston Red Sox are taking on the Los Angeles Angels, who will have Jaime Barria on the mound and boy has he struggled. He has a 4.42 xFIP, 39.6 percent hard-hit rate and a 41.2 percent fly-ball rate. This, combined with an 89.9 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 187 foot average batted-ball distance has led to a 14.8 percent home run-to-fly-ball rate.
Jesus Aguilar ($5,200): Anthony DeSclafani has done a pretty good job at limiting hits, with a reasonable 1.36 WHIP, but the issue is he has given up five home runs in his four starts this season. His numbers are pretty bad across the board, with a 4.48 xFIP, 47 percent hard-hit rate and 23.4 percent line-drive rate. The Statcast numbers do not do him any favors either, as his 88.4 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 195 foot average batted-ball distance are pretty terrible. Jesus Aguilar has had most of his success come against righties in 2018, putting up an elite .399 wOBA and very powerful .309 ISO.
Value Hitters
Wilson Ramos ($3,500): This play is more of targeting a hitter in the midst of a hot-streak that could relistically end at any moment. But, again, the options are limited tonight. Wilson Ramos has been just crushing the ball over his last 10 games, putting up a .353 average, 1.023 OPS while hitting 3 home runs and knocking in 6 runs. He has a difficult matchup tonight against McCullers, but the right-hander has given up seven home runs over his last six games, so there may be some power opportunity for Ramos.
Nick Williams ($3,300): Taking on Tanner Roark is normally just an average matchup, but he can be worth targeting in the right spot. Nick Williams isn't a world-beater by any means, but he comes in pretty cheap and has some power upside. He has hit for a very mediocre .319 wOBA, but his .224 ISO against righties provides a glimmer of hope for a dinger. Additionally, Roark has had some issues with left-handed hitters in 2018, as he's given up a .341 wOBA and .465 slugging percentage to them.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
