3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/2/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Nolan Arenado OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (+120)
Nolan Arenado opened the month of July with a home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Now that he's back home at Coors and against a lefty on Monday, his prop odds of +120 for the over is almost stealing money from Bovada.
Arenado owns a .470 wOBA at home and .555 overall wOBA against southpaws this season. Combine the two, and Arenado has a .649 wOBA over 53 plate appearances at home against left-handed pitching. Arenado is only 8-for-38 (.211) lifetime against Madison Bumgarner, but he does own a pair of homers against him. Our models are projecting Arenado for 3.23 combined runs, hits, and RBIs.
Alex Wood OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Our love affair with Alex Wood and his strikeout total continues tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates. We are 2-0 betting the over on Wood's strikeouts in his last two times on the mound, and we're going for the hat trick on Monday night.
The Pirates have one of the league's lowest strikeout rates at 19.8%, but against southpaws, that jumps to 21.7%. Considering Wood has collected 13 strikeouts over his last two starts, our models project him for 6.69 punchouts against Pittsburgh.
Justin Turner WILL NOT Record A Hit (+160)
Justin Turner has a career .357 wOBA against right-handed pitching, but that clip drops to a .292 wOBA over 102 plate appearances against right-handers in 2018. And tonight's matchup against Nick Kingham won't help anything.
Kingham's body of MLB work is scarce, but he is limiting right-handed hitters to a .238 wOBA over 74 big-league hitters faced. If that continues, Turner is worth a wager to remain hitless. It's far from a lock, with our models projecting Turner for 0.99 hits, but at a +160 payout, it's worth a shot.