3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/5/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jeremy Hellickson OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Alex Bregman OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (+115)
Our models like Alex Bregman more than any other hitter on the slate, and for good reason. The Houston Astros are up against southpaw Carlos Rodon, and Bregman has owned left-handed pitching this season.
Bregman is sporting a .416 wOBA and .283 isolated power in 117 plate appearances against lefties, and with right-handers posting a career .341 wOBA against Rodon, our models project Bregman for 3.16 runs, hits, and RBIs.
Brandon Belt UNDER 2 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-125)
Our lone prop loss on Tuesday was Brandon Belt failing to collect three combined runs, hits, and RBIs, but our models are leaning in the other direction with Belt's prop odds Thursday against the St. Louis Cardinals and Luke Weaver.
Even though Weaver is coming off his worst start of the year, he has been solid on the road. Weaver has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five road starts, and tonight our models think he and the Redbirds' bullpen can limit Belt to 1.75 total runs, hits, and RBIs.