3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/11/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Mike Foltynewicz OVER 6 Strikeouts (-115)
Julio Teheran racked up five strikeouts against the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday to push our prop bet on him. However, some of the same metrics that made Teheran a near winning play are the same ones that make Mike Foltynewicz a candidate to rack up strikeouts tonight.
The Jays own a 23.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, and Fotlynewicz has been lights out at home, with a 2.82 FIP and a 31.5% strikeout rate at SunTrust Park. For Wednesday, our models project Foltynewicz for 6.85 strikeouts.
Vincent Velasquez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Vincent Velasquez was activated by the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday as he is set to start tonight against the New York Mets. New York owns a 23.0% strikeout rate as a team this season, and they could be in trouble against Velasquez.
Velasquez owns a 30.4% strikeout rate when he pitches at home this season, and if he is fully healthy following a missed start, our models project him for 6.4 strikeouts over 6.1 innings of work.
Mookie Betts OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-125)
We were able to cash our last play on Mookie Betts two nights ago, and on Wednesday his battle with right-hander Bartolo Colon is one our models have highlighted as both a good fantasy and prop-betting value.
Betts owns a .454 wOBA and .310 isolated power versus right-handed pitching this season, and he is averaging a run, hit, or RBI once every 1.58 plate appearances against righties. Our models are projecting Betts for 3.5 combined runs, hits, and RBI against Colon and the Texas Rangers.