MLB Betting Guide: Friday 3/29/19
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins
Marlins +1.5 (-124): 2-Star Rating out of 5
After a tumultuous 2018 season in which they finished 35 games below .500, the Miami Marlins are looking to get back into winning. They'll have to do better than they did on opening night if they're going to do so.
The Marlins fell down 6-1 to the Colorado Rockies before scoring a couple of meaningless late runs to lose 6-3. They'll look to get back on track when they send out second-year pitcher Trevor Richards to the mound tonight.
Richards finished with a respectable 4.42 ERA and 9.26 K/9 ratio during his 2018 rookie season, and one of his most complete outings came in his only start against the Rockies, in which he struck out eight and allowed just three hits over six innings in a 6-2 win.
He was a more effective pitcher at home last year, allowing opposing batters to hit just .229 against him compared to .274 on the road. It's thus not that surprising that Miami was more effective for bettors in those home games as well. The team was 7-5 against the spread when he started at home compared to just 5-8 on the road.
He'll have a tough outing against German Marquez, a pitcher who compiled a 2.95 ERA in 17 road starts last season, but our models like the Marlins to keep this one close regardless. We give Miami a 60.2% chance of covering the 1.5 runs here this evening, making this a two-star play.
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Oakland Moneyline (-104): 2-Star Rating out of 5
After being swept by the Seattle Mariners to start off the 2019 Major League Baseball season, the Oakland Athletics got back on the right track with a win over the Los Angeles Angels on Thursday. They'll look to make it two in a row when the teams clash again tonight at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.
The teams split the season series 5-5 in Oakland last year, though the A's outscored the Angels by an average of 1.70 runs per game thanks to 10-0 and 21-3 wins in the last two meetings of the season. The A's will face off against new Angel Matt Harvey, who has never pitched against them before.
While that could work in Harvey's favor tonight as A's players have just a collective 13 at bats against him in their careers, Harvey has had his struggles on the road over the past couple of seasons. The Mets and Reds were a combined 7-19 straight up when he started away from home over the past couple of seasons.
Our models like the A's to take home the win here this evening, moving back to .500 in the process. We give them a 59.2% chance of winning tonight. With an expected return of 16.1%, we give the Oakland moneyline a rating of two stars.
Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays
Rays +1.5 (-144): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Few people probably would have expected the runs to flow when Justin Verlander and Blake Snell took the mound for the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays yesterday, and they were right. The Astros were able to get to Snell for five early runs--all on home runs--but the two teams ended up combining for just six runs, making under bettors happy campers.
The under has been a relatively safe bet when these two teams have played recently. It's 6-1-1 since the start of last season, with the teams combining for an average of just 5.26 runs per game. It's not the only way to bet when these two teams meet, however, and our models are saying that you should take a chance on the Rays runline today.
One of the most intriguing storylines of today's matchup is Charlie Morton. Morton, who spent the last two years as a starter for Houston, moved to Tampa for the 2019 season and will start tonight against his former team. While he hasn't had a ton of exposure to his former teammates, he has been effective in his limited battles against them, holding them to just 6 hits in 29 at bats.
The Rays went 4-0 against the runline when they met the 'Stros at Tropicana field last year, and, after yesterday's loss, they'll look to get back on that track with Morton at the helm tonight. Our models like them to do so, giving them a 62.5% chance of staying within 1.5 runs. Given the -144 line, however, the expected return is just 5.9%, making this a one-star play.
