3 MLB FanDuel Studs to Target on 6/13/19
Just like in other sports, the focal point of your daily fantasy baseball lineups will be your high-priced studs. These guys take up by far the biggest chunk of your cap space, but they also offer the highest ceiling, and in the case of pitcher, by far the highest floors for production.
For hitters, we're looking for guys with big numbers, strong matchups, and with players around them that are likely to produce well too, increasing our chances for runs and RBI. For pitchers we want big strikeout numbers, while the ability to go deep in a game and pick up a win is also valuable.
Taking up so much salary, and playing such a big role in your lineup's ceiling, you're not going to want to whiff on these guys, so lets take a look at a few top-end options that you can count on to anchor your lineup today.
Jacob deGrom, P, New York Mets ($10,200)
We are absolutely loaded with top pitching options tonight, but deGrom stands out as our top-projected arm despite sitting with only the third-highest salary.
deGrom hasn't been quite as nasty through 13 starts in 2019 as he was last year, but he's still sporting a strong 3.43 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), a 29.8% strikeout rate and a 14.4% swinging-strike rate. That SIERA puts him third among today's starting pitchers, though he's only barely behind the second-place mark (3.42) and not far off first (3.20).
If we extend our view back to include the 2018 season, he has the best SIERA among today's starters by a big margin (2.96, the only one better than 3.50) while also sitting first in strikeout rate (31.6%, no others higher than 28.4%).
He's the best pitcher on the slate, which means it doesn't hurt to compromise a bit on the matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals are a middle-of-the-pack offense against right-handed pitching, sporting a 94 wRC+ and 22.5% strikeout rate in the split.
That doesn't sour oddsmakers on deGrom at all, and the Cards are left with the lowest implied total (3.30 runs) on the slate.
Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies ($4,800)
We're back to getting Arenado at home against a southpaw, and as always that's about the best recipe for upside you're going to find.
Arenado has not posted a wOBA below even .500 (!) against lefties at Coors Field in any of the last three seasons, with an absolutely absurd .545 wOBA and .443 ISO over 220 plate appearances in the split since 2017.
San Diego Padres southpaw Matt Strahm has allowed a 41.7% fly-ball and 37.7% hard-hit rate over his major league career (including 42.3% fly-balls and 47.2% hard-hits in 2019), and contact numbers like that are not going to serve him well in the thin air in Denver.
Arenado did make an early exit on Wednesday, but X-rays showed no significant damage in his left arm. If he does end up sitting, you can replace him in a stack with just about whoever else ends up in the Rockies' top-six. If you're playing him as a one-off, you can turn your money instead toward someone like Gary Sanchez, who we have just behind Arenado in our home run projections for tonight.
Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies ($4,700)
This is one of those slates where it's tough to ignore Coors Field, since the hitters that it may be interesting to pivot away to (Mike Trout, Gary Sanchez) don't actually bring you much in the way of savings.
Trevor Story doesn't quite mash lefties like Arenado, but he still owns a stellar .452 wOBA and .409 ISO at home against southpaws over 272 plate appearances in his career. He's in no trouble if a righty replaces Strahm either, with a still-strong .385 wOBA and .293 ISO at home against righties. The Padres relievers are also one of only six groups in the majors to allow a hard-hit rate north of 40%.
The Colorado Rockies' 6.30-run implied total is over a full run higher than any other offense's tonight, and there's just so much more upside in this spot than anywhere else on the slate.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
