DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 6/24/19
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Jon Gray ($9,800): This is an interesting slate because the some of the better pitchers have more difficult matchups, so we'll drop down a couple of spots to get to Jon Gray and his road matchup against the San Francisco Giants. Gray has been solid this year and his 25.4 percent strikeout rate — while good but not great — is the second-best mark on the slate. Gray is rocking a modest 4.19 SIERA which is directly in line with his 4.18 ERA. The Giants have a 28th ranked .290 wOBA against right-handed pitchers which gives Gray considerable upside tonight given the Giants struggles.
Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,700): With the third-best strikeout rate on the slate, just a hair behind Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez comes into tonight's games with a 25.2 percent strikeout rate. He's got a pretty solid 6.8 percent walk rate and a 3.98 SIERA which is much better than his 4.71 ERA. His matchup against the Chicago White Sox is okay as they have a 23.9 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitching which sits 14th and their 17th ranked .315 wOBA are both, simply put, average.
Value Pitcher
CC Sabathia ($7,100): With just a modest 21.2 percent strikeout rate, CC Sabathia doesn't have the greatest numbers across the board. However, he does have a fantastic matchup against the offensively inept Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays have a .291 wOBA against right-handed pitching which sits way down at 27th overall and their 25.0 percent strikeout rate against righties is the fourth-most. So while there are plenty of warts in CC's game, the Jays have been so bad that there is a lot of upside for him tonight in a plus matchup.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Pete Alonso ($5,500): The power that Peter Alonso has brought to the Majors has been insane. Through 77 games, Alonso is second in the Majors with an incredible 27 home runs. He has crushed right-handed pitching this season, with a .388 wOBA and an absolutely elite .317 ISO. His matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies right-handed pitcher Zach Eflin isn't the best one out there, but his 2.83 ERA vs. a 4.51 SIERA leads me to believe that he has been getting a bit lucky which is also backed up by his .271 BABIP.
Aaron Judge ($5,000): Aaron Judge has missed a bunch of time this season, but he was an absolute beast last season. His .384 wOBA and .238 ISO against right-handed pitching was elite in 2018 and he has brought similar power against righties this season with a .246 ISO but just a .338 wOBA. He's taking on a pitcher in Aaron Sanchez who has struggled immensely this season. Sanchez has a slate-worst 5.43 SIERA as well as an abysmal 12.4 percent walk rate. His 17.9 percent strikeout rate is the second-worst tonight.
Ronald Acuna ($4,800): This is a very interesting matchup for Ronald Acuna as he takes on Chicago Cubs veteran left-hander Jon Lester. He has a horrific 41.6 percent hard-hit rate and 37.0 percent fly-ball rate which has resulted in a brutal 16.5 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. This bodes well for Acuna as he has smashed left-handed pitching this season. He has put up an incredible .416 wOBA and .292 ISO which gives him elite upside tonight.
Value Hitters
Jean Segura ($3,900): It seems like Jean Segura is very underpriced tonight. At a sub-$4k price tag, Segura has been fantastic against left-handed pitchers and takes on a struggling one in New York Mets southpaw Steven Matz. Segura has put up a ridiculous .405 wOBA and .333 ISO in this split. Matz has an elite 16.6 percent line-drive rate, but his 40.4 percent hard-hit rate and 36.0 percent fly-ball rate have led to a 19.7 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate which is horrific.
Kyle Schwarber ($3,900): He is far from elite, but Kyle Schwarber has a .327 wOBA and .238 ISO against right-handed pitching, which is still pretty solid. He'll face Julio Teheran of the Atlanta Braves who seems like he's been getting very, very lucky this season. He has just a .245 wOBA and a 3.40 ERA compared to a 5.10 SIERA. In addition, he's giving up a 39.8 percent hard-hit rate and a 38.6 percent fly-ball rate but just a 9.7 home-run-to-fly-ball rate. We should get some regression to the mean soon, and perhaps tonight is the night.
Brandon Belt ($3,400): I know we've talked about Gray above as a very legit pitching option tonight. However, he does have some warts. He's given up a 36.2 percent hard-hit rate and a 24.0 percent line-drive rate which could get him into trouble. While his numbers are not necessarily elite, Brandon Belt provides plenty of value tonight. He has a .353 wOBA and .233 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and could be a very low-owned option that has some intriguing upside.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
