4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/26/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Michael Conforto To Hit a Home Run (+270)
Michael Conforto comes in as the second most likely on the Mets to hit a home run with odds at +270, which are solid considering he has significant power numbers versus right-handed pitchers this season. So far this year, he is carrying a .289 ISO, 37.9% hard-hit rate, and 24.1% home-run-to-fly-ball rate.
Those are solid numbers for the young lefty hitter up against Nick Pivetta, a pitcher who is known for giving up home runs and someone we want to attack. Pivetta has a 4.53 xFIP against lefty hitters this season, along with allowing 1.67 homers per nine innings, which stems from a 44.3% hard-hit rate and a 17.9% home-run-to-fly-ball rate. Conforto has the power to get it done, and Pivetta struggles with lefty power hitters, making this a prop strongly worth considering tonight.
Joey Gallo To Hit a Home Run (+190)
Joey Gallo is back from his injury and is looking send a ball over the fence tonight on the road in Detroit.
Gallo is legitimately one of the best power hitters in the league, and that is shown by the fact he has the best odds on the Texas Rangers to hit a home run tonight, despite this being a lefty versus lefty matchup. Yes, he comes in with a whopping .436 wOBA, .365 ISO, and absurd 41.7% home-run-to-fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. If he gets a ball in the air, it has a chance of going over the fence tonight -- it's really that simple. He is also carrying a 41.9% strikeout rate versus lefty pitchers, though, making this a somewhat boom-or-bust play.
The matchup versus Matt Boyd is a good one since he is holding a 28.6% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio versus lefty hitters this season. The power-hitting Gallo is in a fantastic spot, and his home run prop could be the bet of the night.
Nick Pivetta UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-128)
While Nick Pivetta is a bit home run prone, as mentioned above, he also struggles with striking hitters out, and that is a prop worth looking at.
There is very little juice on the under for Pivetta's strikeout prop tonight, and our projections are in line with that, as we have him going for 4.61 strikeouts. This shouldn't come as too much of a surprise since he is only carrying a 20.5% strikeout rate this season, which is the seventh lowest on the slate, and his lowest rate of his Major League career.
He simply isn't getting it done this season in terms of shutting hitters down, and he is now up against the New York Mets, who only strike out 22.6% of the time versus righty pitchers, which is lower than league average. The under is looking strong tonight considering how much Pivetta is struggling this season, along with the Mets' surprising discipline at the plate.
Patrick Corbin OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-134)
One of the elite pitchers on the slate, Patrick Corbin has some strong factors going in his favor tonight, and his strikeout prop is one to keep an eye on.
Corbin is up against the Miami Marlins, who come in with a 20.5% strikeout rate, which is actually one of the better rates in the league. Despite that, Corbin should still have the upper hand here with his 26.6% strikeout rate and be able to hit the over on his 5.5 prop, which doesn't have a lot of juice tonight.
Our projections back this, since he has the highest projected strikeouts at 6.56 tonight. The Marlins' lineup has certainly shown a bit of life over the past few weeks, but as they showed last night, they will still get dominated by an elite pitcher, thus making this prop worth attacking.