4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/19/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jacob deGrom UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-128)
There is no doubt that Jacob deGrom is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league, but tonight might not be the ideal matchup for him.
The right-hander finds himself up against San Francisco Giants, who are clearly one of the weaker teams in the league -- bottom 10 in wRC+ and ISO versus right-handed pitchers -- but they don't strike out a ton. The Giants only strikeout out 22.5% of the time versus righty pitchers, which is the 11th lowest in the league. For as bad as they are on offense, they don't swing and miss a lot. I guess that's a silver lining for them?
David Price OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+108)
It's no secret that the Baltimore Orioles are the worst team in the league, but does that mean we can target a prop against them tonight?
The Boston Red Sox are on the road and will have David Price on the mound, who comes in carrying a 28.1% strikeout rate this season, which is the fifth-highest among any starting pitcher tonight. Price has certainly had his ups and downs when it comes to allowing runs this year, but the strikeouts are pretty consistent for him.
Price's strikeout prop has positive odds, and that is not something we get often, especially in a matchup like this against the Orioles, who have a 25.9% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers this season, the fourth-worst in the league. That should be easily obtainable for Price, considering he has so much success against them throughout his career. He has 190.1 innings pitched against them, with a total of 195 strikeouts, per Baseball-Reference.
A strong strikeout pitcher against a free-swinging team at the plate should equal one thing -- the over on Price's strikeout prop.
Gleyber Torres To Hit a Home Run (+310)
Gleyber Torres hasn't hit a home run on this side of the All-Star break, but that looks like it could be changing tonight given how good his matchup is. We have Torres projected as the third most likely hitter to go deep tonight, and it shouldn't come as any surprise. He comes in sporting a .176 ISO, 34.7% fly-ball rate, and a 17.6% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio this season versus left-handed pitchers.
That lines up nicely versus Kyle Freeland, who is getting blasted by righty hitters this season, allowing a 5.55 xFIP, a 45.4% hard-hit rate, and a 19.4% home-run-to-fly-ball rate. You could say those numbers are skewed since his home park is Coors Field, but he has a higher hard-hit rate and fly-ball rate versus righty hitters when away from Coors this season.
The +310 odds on Torres' home run prop tonight are amazing and should be strongly considered tonight.
Cody Bellinger To Hit a Home Run (+165)
Cody Bellinger and hitting home runs go together like peanut butter and jelly, -- should we trust his homer prop tonight?
It's Bellinger versus a right-handed pitcher, so do we even need to look twice? Well, if you're looking for a bit reassurance, there is plenty of it to go around. Bellinger is facing off against Miami Marlins pitcher Zac Gallen, who only has 17 innings pitched in the Majors and isn't worth noting since the sample size is too small. We turn to Bellinger -- the potential future MVP -- to see he has a .383 ISO, 51.8% hard-hit rate, and a godly 29.9% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio this season versus right-handed pitchers.
It can be difficult to accurately describe how good Bellinger is versus righties this season, but the fact he has 23 homers against them and has four total since the All-Star break should tell you enough.
The odds on this aren't amazing, but you are working with a prop that looks likely to happen tonight given how strong Bellinger is in 2019.