DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 7/29/19
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Patrick Corbin ($10,800 on DraftKings): Patrick Corbin has been elite this season, but he also has arguably the toughest matchup of any of today's expensive arms. This will be a tough one for him as the Washington Nationals host the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have a 23.0 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, which ranks just 16th. However, Corbin has an elite 28.5 percent strikeout rate and solid 7.6 percent walk rate. In addition to that, he is sporting a 3.81 SIERA while allowing less than a homer per nine (0.97).
Sonny Gray ($9,400): Another tough matchup here as Sonny Gray takes on a Pittsburgh Pirates team that has just a 19.2 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, the third-lowest mark in the Majors, and their .328 wOBA in the split ranks ninth. But Gray has an elite 28.7 percent strikeout rate and leads the all of today's hurlers with a 3.76 SIERA. In addition to the strikeout rate, he has managed a very good 55.2 percent ground-ball rate and has 20-plus DraftKings points in five consecutive starts.
Value Pitcher
Thomas Pannone ($5,500): Let me start this off by saying that Thomas Pannone is far from a good pitcher. His price is simply so low, and with some incredible matchups for hitters tonight, paying down -- way down -- for your SP2 has its advantages. Pannone has a lowly 21.8 percent strikeout rate in the Majors, but there was a bit more promise in Triple-A this season, where he posted a 29.4 percent strikeout rate this year and a 26.0 percent clip in 2018. The opposing Kansas City Royals have a 24.7 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, which is the ninth-most in the Majors, and their .290 wOBA in the split ranks just 27th. This play is more about surviving, but there is a chance for a productive start.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Cody Bellinger ($5,800): Let's start off with the fact that Cody Bellinger has been one of the best hitters in the Majors this season and has absolutely crushed right-handed pitching. This is supported by his ridiculous .443 wOBA and .357 ISO in the split -- numbers that are otherworldly. Now he is heading to Coors Field -- you know, just the best hitting environment in the Majors. Sure, Jon Gray is a solid pitcher, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the slate's top implied total (6.77).
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5,400): The San Diego Padres' rookie has been sensational this season, both at the plate and running the bases. At the plate, he has destroyed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .399 wOBA and .278 ISO. With a possible matchup against Baltimore Orioles' Gabriel Ynoa this evening (Baltimore hasn't officially announced their pitching plans as of early Monday afternoon), there is little reason to believe he'll slow down now. Ynoa has struggled this season with a slate-worst 13.7 percent strikeout rate. Regardless of who the O's start, it should be a favorable matchup for Tatis.
Jesse Winker ($4,100): Jesse Winker is a left-handed hitter who could have success tonight against Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Jordan Lyles. In 287 plate appearances this season, Winker has hit righties to the tune of a .359 wOBA and .240 ISO. This gives him plenty of power upside against a pitcher who struggles keeping the ball in the park. Lyles is giving up a 37.6 percent hard-hit rate and 37.8 percent fly-ball rate, leading to a staggering 18.2 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. With this game in hitter-friendly Cincy, Winker could have a big day, especially if he's atop the lineup. Just check the weather here before locking in anyone from this game.
Value Hitters
Justin Upton ($4,000): Justin Upton has been great against right-handed pitching this season in limited action. He has put together a .374 wOBA and .230 ISO in the split and has arguably the the best matchup on the slate in terms of opposing pitcher. This price seems pretty cheap considering the Detroit Tigers will be rolling with Jordan Zimmermann, who has been absolutely dreadful this season. With a horrendous 5.35 SIERA, the worst on the slate, Zimmermann's 40.6 percent hard-hit rate and 26.9 percent line-drive rate certainly do him no favors. The Los Angeles Angels have the night's second-highest implied total (6.27).
Cavan Biggio ($3,700): Cavan Biggio is just one of many young Toronto Blue Jays who will be in tonight's lineup as they take on Kansas City Royals' right-hander Brad Keller. Biggio has had some success against righties in his rookie season, holding a modest .324 wOBA and .227 ISO in the split. Keller is a guy we can attack as his 3.95 ERA is not supported by his 5.22 SIERA, which is the third-worst clip on the slate. He also has an ugly 10.2 percent walk-rate and brutal 16.6 percent strikeout rate. The Jays are a sneaky stacking play today.
Brian Dozier ($3,400): In seven starts this season, Dallas Keuchel has had his ups and downs, including a surprising 12-strikeout performance in his last start. In all, Keuchel has a 3.50 ERA but a 4.38 SIERA, and he's not getting many punchouts even with his last game factored in as he owns an 18.6% strikeout rate. Brian Dozier has been great against lefties this season, putting up a staggering .414 wOBA and .277 ISO.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
