DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 7/30/19
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Justin Verlander ($11,400 on DraftKings): While it isn't by much, Justin Verlander stands out as the best pitching option on the slate. He leads the way with a 32.8 percent strikeout rate and a 3.27 SIERA. In addition, he has a good-not-great matchup against the Cleveland Indians. They are striking out at a 21.9 percent clip against right-handed pitching which sits down at 22nd overall and their .320 wOBA against righties sits 15th. Now, Verlander also has an elite 5.6 percent walk rate and although his .199 BABIP is insane, Verlander has been elite for long enough that even some regression won't hurt him too much.
David Price ($9,000): This seems like a bit of a misprice here. While Price has only gone longer than six innings once this season, there is still plenty of upside in this matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays. Price has put up 19.9, 31.3, 19.3 and 23.1 DraftKings points against over his four starts against them this season. He has a 28.0 percent strikeout rate with a solid 3.77 SIERA and a solid 6.6 percent walk-rate. The Rays, on the other hand, have struggled against lefties with their 26.5 percent strikeout rate being the second-most in the Majors and their .309 wOBA ranked 23rd.
Value Pitcher
Griffin Canning ($7,900): The stat-line this season for Griffin Canning is quite an odd one. He has a 5.15 ERA which is much higher than his 4.32 SIERA but a .268 BABIP which kind of shows the opposite of his ERA/SIERA. He's giving up a ridiculous 46.5 percent fly-ball rate but has a very good 25.2 percent strikeout rate and a 16.0 percent line-drive rate. Basically, it's tough to know what to expect from Canning tonight. However, he does have a great matchup against a Detroit Tigers team that has an MLB-worst strikeout rate and wOBA against right-handed pitchers at 26.6 percent and .280 respectively.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Freddie Freeman ($5,200): Here we are again as Freddie Freeman is crushing right-handed pitching as per usual. Freeman has put up a .416 wOBA and .269 ISO which is fantastic and takes on a struggling Erick Fedde this evening. In about 50 innings in 2019, Fedde has been a disaster with an ugly 5.65 SIERA. In addition, he is among the worst with a lowly 12.6 percent strikeout rate and a brutal 10.1 percent walk-rate. In addition to the numbers mentioned above, Freeman is rocking a cool .421 OBP which, given Fedde's walk-rate, will be put to great use tonight.
A.J. Pollock ($4,500): Some of the lesser Los Angeles Dodgers are decently priced in Coors Field tonight. Pollock has actually had a lot of success against left-handed pitching this season and while the power isn't great, it'll get a big boost tonight. Despite his injuries, Pollock has an incredible .404 wOBA and a modest .143 ISO against southpaws and will take on Colorado Rockies Kyle Freeland. So far this season, Freeland is giving up an absurd 41.4 percent hard-hit rate and 36.8 percent fly-ball rate which has resulted in a 19.1 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. These numbers should help boost the lack of power Pollock has shown this season.
Ian Desmond ($4,300): Another cheaper bat in this matchup is Ian Desmond — a right-handed bat that has smashed left-handed pitching this season. It certainly helps to get the nice home-field boost albeit against a solid Dodgers pitcher in Julio Urias. Most of Urias' numbers are solid, but the 37.2 percent fly-ball rate could get him into trouble tonight despite having a modest 34.2 percent hard-hit rate. Desmond has had plenty of success against southpaws as he has put up a .397 wOBA and very powerful .320 ISO.
Value Hitters
Tyler Austin ($3,600): It is a rare occurrence when we are looking to use the San Francisco Giants but tonight is that exception. Tyler Austin has put up solid numbers against left-handed pitching throughout his career with a .363 wOBA and .283 ISO which bode well for him tonight against a struggling lefty in Drew Smyly in a fantastic ballpark for hitters. Smyly has given up a slate-worst 49.2 percent hard-hit rate and 47.7 percent fly-ball rate which has resulted in a 22.6 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate.
Robel Garcia ($3,500): Sure it is only 44 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, but in those, Robel Garcia has brought a ton of power. He's putting up a legit .353 wOBA and .317 ISO as he heads into a matchup against St. Louis Cardinals' Adam Wainwright — a righty that has given up way too much power this season. With a 41.3 percent hard-hit rate, Wainwright is going to hope to keep his 29.1 percent fly-ball rate intact as when the ball goes in the air, it goes yard quite often as his 15.3 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate would indicate. In addition, he struggles generating whiffs with just a 7.5 percent swinging-strike rate while sporting a horrific 9.3 percent walk-rate.
Travis Shaw ($2,200): He's only had six plate appearances since coming back up from Triple-A, but this price is simply too low. Obviously, Travis Shaw has struggled mightily this season and even in a favorable matchup against a right-hander like Chris Bassitt, you can argue against playing him. Shaw has a horrific .282 wOBA and .153 ISO against righties and there have been few signs to indicate that'll change. However, his .346 wOBA and .223 ISO against righties for his career are at least encouraging enough to warrant a play at a bargain-basement price tag. Now, there is still a chance he doesn't get into the lineup, but if he does it is very hard to ignore him as a punt tonight.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
