4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 9/3/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jacob deGrom OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-144)
Jacob deGrom is coming off a "rough" start and now faces a familiar opponent tonight.
The rough start is a bit in jest since deGrom allowed four earned runs, which was the first time he allowed over three earned runs since May 17th. deGrom has been one of the best pitchers in the league this season and comes in with an elite 31.7% strikeout rate, which is the third-best on the slate.
Tonight, deGrom faces the Washington Nationals, who come in with a 21.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. That is one of the lower rates in the league, but our projections have deGrom going for 7.58 strikeouts tonight, which would hit the OVER.
The opponent isn't great, but deGrom has been unbelievable against the Nationals over the course of his career, posting 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings according to Baseball-Reference.
Mike Clevinger UNDER 9.5 Strikeouts (-128)
You will find Clevinger at the top of the slate, boasting a 36.3% strikeout rate and now facing a weak White Sox lineup who strike out 26.1% of the time versus right-handed pitchers.
Is Clevinger's strikeout rate awesome? Yes. Do the White Sox strike out a ton? Yes. Even with that said, a 9.5 prop tonight is very high and could be out of reach. Our projections have Clevinger going for 8.18 whiffs tonight, which is a full strikeout lower than the prop.
This game is in Cleveland, which is set to have winds blowing out towards center at 14mph. That presents a bit of risk to Clevinger, who is clearly elite compared to the White Sox, but a few cheap home runs could have him pulled from the game early and limit his chances at strikeouts.
Zack Greinke UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-138)
Zack Greinke isn't a pitcher we normally associate with strikeouts. Does that mean we want the UNDER tonight?
A 22.8% strikeout rate is nothing to write home about and that is nothing new for Greinke, who has seen his strikeout rate drop for the third consecutive year. He is facing off against the Milwaukee Brewers, who do have a higher strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers -- sitting at 25.0% -- but what does that mean for his prop?
A higher strikeout team versus a pitcher who simply isn't elite at striking hitters out presents an interesting scenario, but our projections have Greinke hitting the UNDER tonight, racking up only 5.79 strikeouts. There is a bit of juice on the UNDER, but given the lack of strikeouts from Greinke, it looks to be the right bet tonight.
Anthony Rizzo to Hit a Home Run (+330)
There is plenty of power in the Cubs' lineup, and with a bit of wind expected at Wrigley Field tonight, the home runs should be on the way. They are facing Felix Hernandez, who comes in allowing 2.65 home runs per nine innings to lefty hitters this season from a 43.6% hard-hit rate and 35.7% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio this season. He does have a smaller sample size this season due to an injury, but his numbers from 2018 aren't much better.
Anthony Rizzo comes in with a super strong .251 ISO, 40.0% hard-hit rate, and a 20.6% home-run-to-fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. Rizzo has fantastic power numbers in this split, and our projections are backing that by having him as the second-most likely to hit a home run tonight.