MLB

5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 9/3/19

Jt Kohout  —  @@_JamesKohout_ Sep 3rd, 2019
The Dodgers lineup tonight is full of values, with Gavin Lux, Chris Taylor, and Matt Beaty all at reasonable prices in a great matchup.

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.

That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.

Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.

Gavin Lux, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers ($2,000)

This one is going to be extremely chalky, but it’s also extremely obvious. Gavin Lux is considered to be one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and his minor league production was insane.

In 49 Triple-A games, Lux had a .392/.478/.719 slash line with 13 home runs. He’s an extremely polished hitter and upon his call up becomes one of the best hitters in an already loaded Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. His matchup is great tonight, as he faces Colorado Rockies starter Chi Chi Gonzalez, which is just a cherry on top, but until Lux’s price goes up to the mid-$3,000 range, he’ll constantly be in this article (assuming he plays regularly)

Matt Beaty, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers ($2,800)

Matt Beaty just dominates right-handed pitching. In 190 plate appearances, Beaty has a .934 OPS against righties, along with all eight of his home runs this season and an elite 10.5% strikeout rate.

Beaty enters tonight’s game red-hot. Over his last 56 plate appearances, he has a .955 OPS, three home runs, and seven walks compared to just three strikeouts. The fact he consistently makes contact really raises his ceiling in great matchups like tonight.

As we just alluded to, Chi Chi has been awful in 2019. His 8.07 ERA and 7.31 FIP make that obvious enough, but he’s somehow been even worse against left-handed hitters. In 78 plate appearances against lefties, Gonzalez has surrendered a 1.055 OPS with a laughably bad 16-to-9 walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB:K).

Chris Taylor, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers ($2,600)

Chris Taylor's price tonight is surprisingly low. Since coming back from the injured list on August 20th, Taylor has a .326/.367/.652 slash with seven extra base hits in 49 plate appearances. The one worry about Taylor’s production is that he strikes out a lot, but given his opponent tonight, I’m not particularly worried about that.

The already mentioned Gonzalez is Taylor’s matchup tonight. Not to pick on Chi Chi too much, but there’s just too much value for these Dodgers hitters. Referring back to the strikeout issues that have plagued Taylor at times, those won’t be an issue tonight. Gonzalez, in 35 2/3 innings, has just 20 strikeouts, compared to 22 walks.

Jon Lester, SP, Chicago Cubs ($7,100)

Jon Lester is more of a floor play at starting pitcher tonight, but given his matchup and cheap price, there’s enough value to make him my favorite pitcher tonight.

Since August 1st, the Seattle Mariners have the fourth-worst team wOBA in all of baseball, along with having the fifth-worst strikeout rate. The lineup isn’t much to worry about at this point, and given Lester generally has a safe floor, I would be surprised if he wasn’t able to give at least six innings of quality pitching and end up with a win.

Seth Brown, 1B, Oakland Athletics ($2,700)

Another recent call-up, Seth Brown's production against right-handed pitching in the minors this season was too potent to ignore. In 397 plate appearances against righties in Triple-A this year, Brown hit .316 with 28 home runs and 1.020 OPS.

Tonight, Brown faces right-handed pitcher Jaime Barria. Brown’s power has a chance to really come out against Barria tonight, as Barria has allowed 15 home runs in 62 innings -- which has been a big factor in his 6.20 ERA on the season.


James Kohout is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, James Kohout also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username jt2115. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.