MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/5/20 on FanDuel
Friday's simulated MLB DFS slate on FanDuel is overflowing with great stacking options. The starters scheduled to toe the virtual rubber don't get many strikeouts, meaning these dudes are going to put the ball in play. Prepare for points.
The quality of pitcher means we should -- in theory -- have a tough time finding starters we want to use within our rosters, but that's actually not a huge issue, either. Two starters stand out, and they're at wildly different salaries.
It's a pristine slate.
Here's a rundown of said starters, sorted by their salaries on FanDuel. The individual numbers are from starts they made in 2019. Opposing numbers are based on current active rosters against that pitcher's handedness last year.
| Pitcher | Salary | Opponent | SIERA | Strikeout % | Walk % | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Price | $9,700 | COL | 3.85 | 28.0% | 7.0% | 24.1% | 98 |
| Dinelson Lamet | $9,400 | ARI | 3.61 | 33.6% | 9.6% | 21.8% | 96 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | $8,200 | CHC | 4.29 | 24.0% | 7.0% | 23.5% | 108 |
| Kendall Graveman | $8,000 | MIA | -- | -- | -- | 24.4% | 95 |
| Gio Gonzalez | $7,600 | DET | 5.03 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 24.9% | 98 |
| Max Fried | $7,400 | PHI | 3.83 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 23.9% | 109 |
| Pablo Lopez | $7,100 | SEA | 4.44 | 20.3% | 5.8% | 25.9% | 88 |
| Luke Weaver | $7,000 | SDP | 3.84 | 26.5% | 5.4% | 25.0% | 88 |
| Griffin Canning | $6,900 | MIN | 4.31 | 25.3% | 7.8% | 20.9% | 119 |
| Tyler Chatwood | $6,600 | CIN | 5.10 | 21.4% | 12.2% | 24.3% | 95 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | $6,400 | CWS | 4.93 | 16.3% | 5.0% | 25.6% | 107 |
| Adam Plutko | $6,300 | KAN | 5.19 | 17.5% | 5.7% | 22.1% | 93 |
| Jake Arrieta | $6,200 | ATL | 4.82 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 22.4% | 100 |
| Brett Anderson | $6,000 | BOS | 5.17 | 12.1% | 6.6% | 19.7% | 112 |
| Kyle Freeland | $5,900 | LOS | 5.19 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 21.9% | 105 |
| Mike Montgomery | $5,800 | CLE | 4.74 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 20.8% | 104 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | $5,700 | LAA | 4.91 | 21.7% | 9.7% | 20.3% | 109 |
| Ryan Weber | $5,500 | MIL | 5.16 | 13.2% | 3.8% | 22.8% | 102 |
Hopefully you can spot some gems by looking at the data. Here are the ones that seem to stand out for the offering.
Pitchers
The two pitchers who move the needle most on this slate are David Price ($9,700) and Luke Weaver ($7,000). Which way you go partly depends on which stacks you like, so let's just break down the appeal in both arms.
Price is at home against the Colorado Rockies, and when you take them out of Coors Field, that's a plus matchup. The Rockies' active roster struck out 24.1% of the time against lefties last year, and their wRC+ was 98.
The matchup is a plus for Price, though he really doesn't need it. He's second on the slate with a 28.0% strikeout rate, and he pairs it with a 7.0% walk rate. The talent is there, and the situation is favorable for pitching. That makes Price worthy of being the highest-salaried pitcher on the board.
With that said, Weaver checks many of the same boxes and is $2,700 cheaper. Weaver is also at home for a matchup that is actually even better than Price's. The San Diego Padres' re-vamped offense comes in with a 25.0% strikeout rate and 88 wRC+ against righties.
The one thing that allows us to justify spending up for Price over Weaver is sample size. Weaver's 3.84 SIERA, 26.5% strikeout rate, and 5.4% walk rate as a starter last year are all superb, but it came over the span of just 12 starts due to injury. As such, the simulations likely view Price as being the superior pitcher.
If you find some bargain stacks you like, Price is the top pitcher on the slate. If you struggle there, you can take a swing on Weaver. Either way, it's clear these two need to be the focus of our starting pitching slot.
Stacks
As mentioned in the top, you've got a lot of options for stacking here. However, we get just five entries for the simulated slate, meaning we have to be selective. So let's go through the best of the best and why they stand out.
When there are so many options, it may be weird to view the Chicago White Sox as being an elite consideration. But thanks to some offseason additions, they bring in a 107 wRC+ against righties, meaning they're a good chunk above the league average. Their lone blemish is an elevated strikeout rate, but that won't be much of a concern today.
They're facing Jordan Zimmermann, who finished last year with a 16.3% strikeout rate and 5.0% walk rate. That walk rate is good for real life, but it also means he's going to allow a butt ton of balls in play. The White Sox have dudes who can punish baseballs, putting Zimmermann in a rough spot.
From a salary perspective, the White Sox's roster is littered with mid-range plays between $3,500 and $3,200. That's something you can easily afford if you're going Weaver, but it may force you to scrounge for some value in your Price lineups. Regardless, getting someone with the upside of Yoan Moncada for just $3,500 is still a bargain, so we'd be wise to consider this team no matter what we do at pitcher.
An easy outlet for value if you need help pairing the White Sox with Price is the Milwaukee Brewers. They're facing Ryan Weber, who had a 16.6% strikeout rate last year even while making most of his appearances as a reliever. In his three starts, that dipped to 13.2%. The Brewers' offense isn't what it once was, but they're likely still good enough to take advantage of that.
Within the Brewers' offense, one of the keys will be Justin Smoak ($2,800). Although Smoak's performance lagged against lefties last year, he still swung a hot stick against righties with a .234 isolated slugging percentage. He, Avisail Garcia ($2,900), and Ryan Braun ($2,700) all carry low-dollar salaries and occupy the middle third of the order, allowing us to get salary savings without sacrificing upside.
Ideally, using the Brewers will let you splurge a bit for any remaining stacks you may need to fill in. If so, it's wise to check out the Los Angeles Dodgers against Kyle Freeland.
Freeland is on the road here, which is certainly a plus for him. However, he had a 5.19 SIERA as a starter last year with a 16.7% strikeout rate, numbers we can stack against even with the game being in Los Angeles. That's especially true when the offense is as good as the Dodgers'.
In stacking this team, you should be able to get to the crown jewels in Cody Bellinger ($3,900) and Mookie Betts ($3,700) pretty easily thanks to the other bats in the order. Namely, Justin Turner ($3,000) and Will Smith ($3,000) will hold down the third and fifth spots, respectively, and both can certainly bring the boom. A.J. Pollock ($2,600) is batting right behind Smith and had a .212 isolated slugging percentage with the platoon advantage last year. Because of this, the Dodgers are in play even if you pepper in the mid-range White Sox as long as you're cool missing out on either Betts or Bellinger.
