MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/28/20 on FanDuel
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FanDuel's MLB Sims Sports, a new free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- things like player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Here's the breakdown for today's main slate, which starts at 8:06 p.m. EST.
Pitchers
The pitching on this slate is a big yikes. Based on talent, Zack Greinke ($9,700) is clearly the best of the bunch. He's taking on the Texas Rangers, an offense that struck out at the fifth-highest rate (25.4%) last season. Greinke isn't infallible, but he's got the most upside on the slate.
You're going to have to overlook some things with any other arm.
Ryan Yarbrough ($8,300) isn't someone I'd normally consider at this salary, but on this slate, we kind of have to at least think about him. He limited walks last year (3.5% rate) and posted a decent 10.2% swinging-strike rate. The matchup versus the Seattle Mariners is a solid one as Seattle held the fourth-highest strikeout rate (25.5%) in 2019.
Garrett Richards ($6,200) is in play as a value pick. He's taking on the New York Mets. The Mets aren't a good matchup in any way, but they're not a bad one, either. Richards gets them in pitcher-friendly Petco, and he's shown strikeout upside before, with a 26.9% strikeout rate across 76 1/3 frames in 2018.
Stacks
Given the lackluster pitching on this slate, we have no shortage of stacking options, and unless you use Greinke, you should have the cash to go Mall Madness with your bats. The Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros are my favorite two stacks today.
The Twins are at home versus Kyle Freeland, the owner of a 16.7% strikeout rate last campaign. Minnesota has a lot of guys who maul southpaws, and they're way underpriced. Getting a 3-4-5 stack of Nelson Cruz ($3,300), Josh Donaldson ($3,000) and Miguel Sano ($2,800) at these salaries against a lefty is a joke. Mitch Garver ($2,800) is leading off, and Jorge Polanco ($2,500) -- another guy who is too cheap -- is slotted second.
Houston is facing Jordan Lyles, who ended 2019 with a 38.5% hard-hit rate and 41.3% fly-ball rate. Normally when we stack the Astros, we're either making a sacrifice on the bump or having to pick just one or two of Houston's best bats. That might not be the case tonight. Yordan Alvarez ($3,600) is the most expensive Astro, and he's not really that expensive. Michael Brantley ($3,300) is an excellent point-per-dollar play while Alex Bregman ($3,500), George Springer ($3,500), Carlos Correa ($3,100) and Jose Altuve ($3,600) are all priced modestly.
The Colorado Rockies are a quality stacking option, and they may go under-owned due to their sky-high prices -- basically across the board -- and how accessible the two aforementioned stacks are. They're taking on Jhoulys Chacin in Minnesota, and Chacin allowed a 46.9% hard-hit rate and 38.1% fly-ball rate last year. Nolan Arenado ($4,400), Charlie Blackmon ($4,100), Trevor Story ($3,900), Ryan McMahon ($3,800), David Dahl ($3,800) and Daniel Murphy ($3,800) are all expensive but are in a great spot. Sam Hilliard ($3,000) is a cheaper way to get exposure to this lineup, and he has both stolen-base and dinger upside.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
