MLB Betting Guide: Friday 4/2/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins
Over 7.5 (+100): 2-Star Rating out of 5
These two teamed up for a whole one run yesterday when our model pointed to the over as a good bet. That's a big welp. But we're right back on the saddle today, and over 7.5 runs in this game is the only bet of the night our algorithm rates as more than a one-star play.
The pitching matchup today is a much more over-friendly clash than what we saw on Opening Day as it's Ryan Yarbrough against Pablo Lopez. While both guys are decent, they have some warts, as well.
Yarbrough has a career 20.3% strikeout rate and 4.17 SIERA. His 4.44 SIERA last year paints a much different picture than his 3.56 ERA does. As for Lopez, he broke out last season with a 3.98 SIERA and 24.6% strikeout rate. But that was a shortened 2020 (57 1/3 innings), and he owned career marks of a 4.39 SIERA and 19.7% strikeout rate coming into last season. We'll have to see if his numbers carry over to 2021.
We project a 4.46-3.99 win tonight for the Rays. That's a total of 8.65 runs, and we think the over hits 57.4% of the time.
San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners
Giants Moneyline (+108): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners played a really fun game last night, and we forecast another tight matchup today. Our model has the Giants winning 4.26-4.10, and with San Fran a slight +108 underdog on the moneyline, there's value in taking the Giants to win.
San Francisco is giving the ball to Johnny Cueto while Yusei Kikuchi is taking the bump for Seattle. It's hard to find many positives for Cueto as he hasn't posted a SIERA better than 4.47 SIERA since 2016. He did have a respectable 20.2% strikeout rate a season ago, and the Mariners' offense doesn't pack too much punch. Of course, the Giants' lineup is pretty blah, too. But San Fran did have a .358 wOBA against lefties last year, and guys like Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, Austin Slater and Wilmer Flores are pretty good in the split.
In short, our model sees this game as basically a toss-up, and the Giants moneyline (+108) is more appealing than Seattle's (-128). On a night where betting value is hard to find, our algorithm rates San Francisco on the moneyline as a one-star wager.
