MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/13/21
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For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 7.5 (-102): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Strasburg is one of the game's best pitchers, but he's tossed only 11 innings since the start of the 2020 campaign and wasn't fully healthy for all of spring training. Washington let him throw just 85 pitches in his 2020 debut, so unless he's super efficient, the Nats' bullpen should have to put in a shift tonight. That's good news for the over as the Nats' relievers mustered just a 4.87 xFIP in 2020, the seventh-worst clip.
As for Flaherty, he had a letdown in 2020 after his 2019 second-half breakout, pitching to a 4.91 ERA a year ago. And the Nationals have plenty of left-handed pop -- with Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber leading the way -- to slot in against him tonight.
In all, our model projects a 4.94-4.07 victory for the Cards. That's a total of 9.01 runs -- opening up a lot of value on the over. We forecast the over to hit 62.1% of the time.
Over 7.5 (-112): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Fried hasn't been sharp so far in 2021, permitting seven runs in seven innings. While he has punched out 11 and is taking on a bad offense tonight, Fried has thrown 94 and 49 pitches in his two outings, needing 94 pitches to get through five innings in his debut. And the Miami Marlins have some dudes who can hit southpaws -- righties like Jesus Aguilar, Adam Duvall, Starling Marte and Garrett Cooper -- so they shouldn't be a complete pushover.
Lopez had a career-best 3.97 SIERA last season, but he's given up a lot of loud contact in his small sample of 11 2/3 frames in 2021, surrendering a 46.4% hard-hit rate. He also struggled against the Atlanta Braves last year, allowing nine earned runs across 11 2/3 innings in three starts.
We project the Braves to do the heavy lifting to get to us the over as we have Atlanta winning by a score of 5.36-4.06. That's a total of 9.42 runs -- nearly two runs over the current line. We have the over hitting 65.4% of the time.