MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/20/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees
Over 8.5 (-120): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Braves +1.5 (-178): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Braves Moneyline (+108): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Our model sees this game playing out a lot differently than oddsmakers do. We project the Atlanta Braves to go on the road and beat the New York Yankees tonight by a score of 5.77-4.91, and when you compare that to the betting lines, there is value everywhere.
Let's break down the matchup, which gives us a pitching clash between Charlie Morton and Jameson Taillon.
Taillon has thrown only 45 2/3 innings since the start of 2019, so he's a huge wild card this season. Understandably, the Yankees have been cautious with Taillon through two outings, letting him toss just 84 and 74 pitches. We're obviously dealing with small samples this season, but while there are some positives in Taillon's numbers, he's also allowed a 57.7% fly-ball rate. That's not ideal for pitching at Yankee Stadium, and it's led to him permitting three jacks across his two starts (8 1/3 frames), one of which was in the Bronx.
Morton gives the Braves the advantage on the bump as he's been excellent in recent years. Since the start of 2019, the righty owns a 3.58 SIERA and 29.4% strikeout rate over 249 2/3 innings. He's been one of baseball's better starting pitchers, and that's continued so far in 2021 as he sports a 3.13 SIERA and 29.6% strikeout rate through his first 17 innings.
We all know the Yankees are going to get going offensively at some point, but the edge at the plate has to lean toward the Braves right now. Atlanta is 4th in wOBA (.331) while the Yanks are 25th (.289).
As I mentioned, we have Atlanta winning 5.77-4.91. That total of 10.68 is more than two runs over the installed over/under of 8.5, and we rate the over as a three-star bet. Despite just 52% of bets being on the over, per oddsFire, 68% of the money is on the over, indicating some large bets on the side of the over.
We also rank the Braves to cover as 1.5-run 'dogs as a three-star play and project it to happen 73.7% of the time. There is smart money following that trend, too. While only 51% of the betting tickets are on Atlanta to cover, a whopping 78% of the money is on the Braves' side.
Lastly, we have the Braves winning outright 57.0% of the time, so an Atlanta moneyline bet is a two-star wager, per our model.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Over 8.0 (-115): 5-Star Rating out of 5
It's rare for there to be a five-star recommendation, so we have to take notice when our algorithm loves a bet this much.
The pitching probables tonight are Hyun-jin Ryu and Eduardo Rodriguez. Both lefties are good pitchers, especially Ryu, but they're going up against offenses that can do damage versus left-handers
Led by J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts, the Boston Red Sox' lineup can be really tough on southpaws. And we can say the same for the Toronto Blue Jays, who will likely roll out a righty-heavy lineup that will be spearheaded by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel and Randal Grichuk.
In all, our projections see 11.10 runs being scored in this game (6.08-5.02 win for the Jays), and the total is at only 8.0 runs. We give the over a 71.3% chance of hitting.
