MLB Betting Guide: Friday 4/23/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 7.0 (-114): 4-Star Rating out of 5
The Miami Marlins and San Francisco Giants aren't exactly offensive powerhouses, but our model loves the over in their matchup today. A 7.0-run total is really low for a game in which the two starting pitchers -- Sandy Alcantara and Alex Wood -- aren't that great.
Alcantara is off to a scorching start this season, but across 2019 and 2020, he pitched to a 5.13 SIERA and 18.8% strikeout rate, so his small-sample 2021 numbers may not be all that real.
As for Wood, he's tossed just 53 1/3 innings since the start of 2019, racking up a 4.46 SIERA and 20.9% strikeout rate in that time. He threw only 61 pitches in his debut start this season, so we should see plenty of the Giants' bullpen. And the Marlins' lineup should feature a few guys -- namely Jesus Aguilar and Adam Duvall -- who do work against lefties.
Our algorithm projects the Giants to win by a score of 4.68-4.19. That's a total of 8.87 runs, and we give the over a 60.9% chance to hit.
Over 7.0 (-108): 4-Star Rating out of 5
The pitchers in this game are pretty good, but our projections see this as another contest in which the over is a solid bet. The Tampa Bay Rays are sending Tyler Glasnow to the hill while the Toronto Blue Jays counter with Steven Matz.
Glasnow has been outstanding this season, sporting a sparkling 40.0% strikeout rate and 2.37 SIERA. He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball. But he did surrender a 38.4% hard-hit rate in 2020, which led to 1.73 dingers per nine innings, and this Jays lineup has some pop.
Matz owns a 3.71 SIERA and 26.5% strikeout rate through his initial 18 1/3 frames this season. However, his 9.9% swinging-strike rate hints at some negative regression in the punchout department, and Matz put up a 4.47 SIERA in 2019, his last season with more than 31 innings pitched. Plus, the Rays finished 2020 with the second-best hard-hit rate (38.4%) versus southpaws.
Our model has the Rays doing the heavy lifting today to get us to the over as we project a 5.24-3.69 victory for Tampa Bay. That's 8.93 total runs. We forecast the over to hit 61.4% of the time.