3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 4/29/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Chris Bassitt Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+138)
Chris Bassitt has meaty +138 odds to strike out seven or more Tampa Bay batters in this matinee.
The previous two outings have been good from a strikeout standpoint for the Oakland Athletics' starter. Bassitt struck out eight in each start over six innings of work against both Detroit and Baltimore. After two poor starts to begin 2021, Bassitt has rebounded in a big way. He has an 11.5% swinging-strike rate and 22.0% strikeout rate in 28 1/3 innings this season.
He takes on the Rays on the road, which is a great matchup as Tampa Bay owns the second-highest strikeout rate (26.9%).
Our projections are rather bearish on Bassitt at fewer than six innings and just 5.44 strikeouts. But I really like the matchup and think this one will be close, so given the +138 number on the over, I fall on that side.
Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a Home Run (+185)
The New York Yankees face Jorge Lopez and the Baltimore Orioles this afternoon from Camden Yards. The Yankees just love golfing home runs out of Camden Yards as they hit several more on Wednesday.
Giancarlo Stanton has struggled out of the blocks in April, batting a mere .229. His slugging percentage is just .470. His career rate is up at .545.
Despite all that, Stanton has hit six home runs this month, and we know what kind of power he brings to the plate every game. Playing in Camden Yards won't hurt, either. Neither will the matchup as Lopez has permitted a 38.2% hard-hit rate over his career.
We project Stanton for 0.24 homers, the fourth-most among the afternoon slate of games.
Jordan Montgomery Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+122)
Jordan Montgomery is a good pitcher, and I think he fans six or more O's today.
Since the start of 2020, Montgomery has racked up a 24.9% strikeout rate and 12.8% swinging-strike rate across 65 2/3 innings. His SIERA in that time is 3.80. He's really good. And the Yankees are lengthening his leash little by little as Montgomery has thrown 82, 86 and 89 pitches in his past three starts.
The Orioles are a pretty neutral matchup for punchouts, and things can always go south quickly for any hurler at the hitter-haven that is Camden Yards.
But with Montgomery possibly getting to 90-plus pitches today as long as he's throwing well, the over is the way to go in my eyes.
