MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 5/27/21
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For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 7.5 (-118): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
For as good as Ohtani has been on the mound -- 2.37 ERA and 34.9% strikeout rate -- there are some warts in his profile. The most glaring is a 17.1% walk rate, which is the big reason his SIERA is 4.13. He also has been kept on a short leash, throwing more than 88 pitches just once (92). He's worked past the fifth inning just one time, so we should see a good amount of a Los Angeles Angels bullpen that has the seventh-worst SIERA (4.05).
Bassitt has made a sizable leap in 2021, pitching to a 3.55 SIERA and 25.7% strikeout rate in 61 frames. In nearly the same size of sample in 2020 (63 innings), he had a 4.46 SIERA and 21.1% strikeout rate. While Bassitt's profile is pretty great, he's going to be followed by a shoddy Oakland 'pen that is third-worst in SIERA (4.23).
Both of these offenses are above-average in wOBA. The Angels are 9th (.319) while the A's are 12th (.317).
We have this game being a 5.05-4.15 win for Oakland. That's a total of 9.20 runs, and we project the over to win out 63.7% of the time. It's one of the night's top bets, per our model.
Over 9.0 (-108): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
We project the Chicago White Sox to do the heavy lifting here to get us to the over.
The Pale Hose are taking on Bruce Zimmermann, who owns a 4.56 career SIERA with an 18.1% strikeout rate. He should be in for a rough outing against a Chicago offense that ranks fourth in wOBA (.328) and second in wRC+ (112).
Cease is breaking out this year, posting a 4.08 SIERA, 29.0% strikeout rate and 14.5% swinging-strike rate. He is, however, still walking plenty of hitters (12.4% walk rate) and allowing a lot of fly balls (41.8% fly-ball rate). He's due to give up some more bombs as his 6.5% homer-to-fly-ball rate is well below is career mark of 16.5%.
Our algorithm projects a 6.00-4.50 win for Chicago. That's 1.5 runs over the total, and we have the over hitting 66.7% of the time.