MLB Betting Guide: Friday 5/28/21
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For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 7.5 (-106): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The pitching matchup in this one pits Jon Gray against Mitch Keller. While neither pitcher is all that good, neither offense is, either, so we're getting a total at just 7.5 runs. Our model likes the over.
While most of Gray's numbers are improved from his putrid 2020, he's still got just a 4.39 SIERA and 19.9% strikeout rate. His current 9.1% walk rate is a career-worst mark. As for Keller, the one-time elite prospect is having another worrying campaign, struggling to a 4.76 SIERA with a meager 7.8% swinging-strike rate. He's walking 11.7% of hitters and surrendering 1.43 dingers per nine.
Our projections have this game as a coin flip, pegging the Rox to win 4.63-4.48. That's 9.11 runs -- well above the 7.5-run line. We have the over hitting 63.0% of the time and rate it as a three-star wager.
Over 6.5 (-120): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
This will be Walker's return from the injured list, and he'd more or less been the same Walker prior to getting hurt. He owns a 4.37 SIERA and 23.7% strikeout rate, and his walk rate is up to 10.4%. Against a Braves offense that walks at the 10th-highest clip, Walker could be in some trouble.
Anderson can be gross when he's on (3.82 SIERA and 25.2% strikeout rate), but he also has issues with walks. He's got a 10.0% walk rate this season and a 10.1% mark for his career. The Mets' offense is walking at the eighth-highest rate, so if Anderson is inefficient, New York could get into a Braves bullpen that is eighth-worst in SIERA (4.02).
In total, we project 8.90 runs to be scored in this game (4.71-4.19 win for Atlanta). That's 2.4 runs more than the 6.5-run total. We forecast a 71.8% chance for the over to win out.
Cardinals +1.5 (-184): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The St. Louis Cardinals are 1.5-run underdogs but are just +108 on the moneyline, so oddsmakers are expecting a close game. We're expecting a Cards win.
The Red Birds are up against Madison Bumgarner. MadBum has picked it up this year, spinning his way to a 3.85 SIERA and 25.1% strikeout rate. But he's still giving up plenty of juicy contact (38.8% hard-hit rate and 48.6% fly-ball rate), especially to right-handers (40.6% hard-hit rate and 48.0% fly-ball rate).
His trouble with righties is a good thing for a St. Louis lineup anchored by Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, two guys who know Bumgarner well from their days in the National League West. Both dudes have a lot of success against southpaws. Arenado carries a .454 wOBA and 53.6% fly-ball rate in the split this year while Goldschmidt posted a .439 wOBA versus lefties in 2020.
St. Louis will send Johan Oviedo to the mound. Oviedo has thrown only 15 2/3 innings this year, never working past the fifth, but he does have a 13.2% swinging-strike rate.
We project both offenses to fare well, with our algorithm projecting a 5.41-4.94 victory for the Cardinals. With St. Louis a 1.5-run 'dog, betting on them to cover is a two-star play.