MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 6/15/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 8.5 (-105): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
McClanahan has been very impressive thus far in his rookie campaign, posting a 3.49 SIERA in 33 2/3 innings, but this a brutal matchup. The Chicago White Sox sit first in wOBA against lefties (.352). Plus, the Tampa Bay Rays are keeping a tight leash on McClanahan, who hasn't thrown more than 80 pitches in any outing this year, so we should see a lot of a Rays 'pen that had to cover five innings last night with Tyler Glasnow exiting early.
As for Keuchel, he's striking out just 13.6% of hitters. That's, uh, not good. In fact, it's the lowest strikeout rate among qualified starters. Going up against the likes of righties Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, and Michael Brosseau, Keuchel should have some trouble tonight.
Our model projects a 5.27-4.76 win for the White Sox. That's 10.03 runs -- well over the 8.5-run line. We have the over hitting 62.9% of the time and rate it as a three-star wager.
San Diego Moneyline (-235): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The San Diego Padres are a lot better than the Colorado Rockies. Not only have the Padres won 12 more games than the Rox have, but San Diego's +66 run differential is miles better than Colorado's -65 clip. Of course, the Rockies won 3-2 last night because baseball.
Darvish is very good, sporting a 3.37 SIERA and 29.9% strikeout rate. Gonzalez is not good, struggling to a 5.05 SIERA and 13.4% strikeout rate. Add in Coors Field, and Gonzalez could get rocked by this San Diego offense.
That's exactly what we project to happen as we have the Padres winning by a score of 7.20-4.51. While oddsmakers definitely like San Diego tonight, installing them as -235 moneyline favorites, we like the Padres even more. The -235 moneyline comes out to implied win odds of 70.1% while our numbers give San Diego win odds of 74.4%. That's decent value on a night where our algorithm doesn't spot much of it, and we rate the Padres moneyline as a two-star bet.