MLB Betting Guide: Friday 6/25/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 7.5 (-114): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
While Kikuchi has been really good this season, pitching to a 3.77 SIERA and 25.3% strikeout rate, this is a brutal matchup for him. The Chicago White Sox absolutely thrash southpaws, sitting second in wOBA (.343) in the split.
Admittedly, it's a little harder to make a case for the Seattle Mariners to put up runs on Rodon. The Chicago left-hander has been superb this season, sporting a 2.71 SIERA and 36.6% strikeout rate. With Seattle 27th in wOBA against lefties (.288), Rodon has a chance to mow through this Mariners lineup. But baseball can be weird, and this season Rodon has had outings in which he permitted five runs to the Cleveland Indians and four runs to the Kansas City Royals, two teams that aren't exactly big-time lineups.
All in all, our model projects a 5.02-4.15 win for the White Sox. That's 9.17 total runs, and we have the over hitting 63.4% of the time. It's one of two three-star bets for Friday, according to our numbers.
Baltimore +1.5 (+105): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Baltimore Moneyline (+200): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
After watching the Toronto Blue Jays light up the Baltimore Orioles in a 9-0 win last night, it's not easy to bet on Baltimore tonight -- especially when Matt Harvey is getting the ball -- but that's the side our projections favor.
Harvey has been better away from home, posting a 4.50 xFIP in his travels, compared to a 5.02 clip at Camden Yards. Of course, he's given up at least four runs in six of his last seven starts, and this could go very poorly for him. We have Toronto scoring 5.62 runs today, so we're not expecting Harvey to thrive.
But our model also forecasts the O's to do some damage offensively as we project Baltimore to plate 5.10 runs. They're facing Alek Manoah, who has been good so far in his rookie campaign but allowed five earned runs in 3 1/3 frames against these same Orioles in his last start (before being ejected).
We have the Jays winning 5.62-5.10, but we give the O's win odds of 42.15%. At a +200 moneyline, oddsmakers are handing Baltimore implied win odds of only 33.3%, so we see value in taking the O's to win or cover.