MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 7/27/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Washington Moneyline (+108): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Washington +1.5 (-170): 3-Star Out of 5
There's a big discrepancy here between our model and the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook. Our projections have the Washington Nationals -- who are 1.5-run underdogs -- winning by a score of 5.77-4.95, so this is a spot to pounce.
The pitching matchup should lead to a lot of runs for both sides as it's Erick Fedde against Matt Moore. Fedde owns a 4.75 SIERA with a lowly 7.5% swinging-strike rate. Moore has struggled to a 5.02 SIERA, 19.2% strikeout rate, and 10.4% walk rate. We project the red-hot offense of the Nats -- who pace baseball in wOBA over the last 14 days (.368) -- to do the most damage.
An area that could be very important tonight in which Washington has a slim advantage is the bullpen. Over the last 14 days, both 'pens have had a tough go of it, but Washington's reliever SIERA (4.29) is a little bit better than the Philadelphia Phillies' (4.46).
All in all, we rate Washington to cover 1.5 runs as a three-star bet and have them doing so a whopping 73.4% of the time. We also give the Nationals a 56.5% chance to win outright and list the moneyline as a two-star wager.
Under 9.0 (-104): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
This is definitely a clash between two poor offenses, which might matter more than the pitchers. For the season, the St. Louis Cardinals sit 25th in wOBA (.301) while the Cleveland Indians are one spot worse (.300). Over the last 14 days, Cleveland's wOBA is down to .280.
Wainwright actually has his best SIERA since 2015, sporting a 4.02 clip with a respectable 22.7% strikeout rate, although his swinging-strike rate is only 8.0%. Admittedly, it's harder to back Quantrill, who carries a 4.92 SIERA and 15.9% swinging-strike rate, but he's a former first-round pick who was better over a larger sample across 2019 and 2020, recording a 20.8% strikeout rate and 4.42 SIERA in 135 frames in that span.
We think runs will be hard to come by today in Cleveland, projecting 4.20-3.99 win for the Cards. That's 8.19 total runs, and we have the under hitting 53.1% of the time.
San Francisco Moneyline (+106): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
San Francisco +1.5 (-162): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
At first glance, a pitching matchup of Julio Urias against Logan Webb is an advantage for the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, our projections like the San Francisco Giants -- who are 1.5-run 'dogs -- in this NL West bout.
A lot of that is due to Logan Webb, who is taking the ball for San Fran. Webb holds a 3.46 SIERA and 25.3% strikeout rate. He's allowing hard contact just 26.3% of the time and keeps the ball on the ground with a 60.6% ground-ball rate. On top of that, Webb is getting an LA lineup that will be sans Mookie Betts, Gavin Lux, Corey Seager and possibly Cody Bellinger.
Urias is really good, pitching to a 3.58 SIERA and 26.5% strikeout rate. He's allowed exactly one earned run in three of his last four starts. But he has struggled with the long ball, permitting at least one tater in 10 of his past 11 outings. He's been lucky to keep them to solo shots of late.
This should be a tight game as the Dodgers (first) and Giants (second) are the top two teams in the game, per our nERD-based rankings. Our model gives the slight edge tonight to San Francisco, forecasting a 4.22-3.96 win for the Giants. We have San Fran winning 55.1% of the time, and we think they cover the 1.5 runs 66.9% of the time.