MLB Betting Guide: Friday 8/13/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Tigers +1.5 (-172): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Tigers Moneyline (+100): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model is a big fan of the underdog Detroit Tigers tonight.
Detroit is hosting the Cleveland Indians, who will have Zach Plesac on the bump. Plesac is having a rough season, sporting a meager 15.6% strikeout rate and allowing 1.71 homers per nine. With the Tigers' offense offense coming to life as the year has gone on, including the eighth-best wOBA over the last 30 days (.332), this is a difficult matchup for Plesac.
The Tigers are going with Tyler Alexander. While Alexander is a meh pitcher (4.42 SIERA and 18.8% strikeout rate), he's got a friendly matchup against a Cleveland offense that is just 25th in wOBA across the past 30 days (.302).
Our numbers point to the Tigers winning outright 57.4% of the time. With Detroit at +100 on the moneyline, we rate taking them to win as a two-star bet. We project them to cover as 1.5-run 'dogs 69.0% of the time, which is another two-star wager.
Over 8.5 (-114): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Bumgarner is on a hot streak, but his overall numbers are still fairly underwhelming, with him carrying a 4.42 SIERA and 21.5% strikeout rate. And even during his better play of late, he's fanned only 13 in his past 21 innings. On top of that, he gets a brutal matchup against a Padres offense that is seventh in wOBA over the last 30 days (.338) and has been tough on lefties all year. It's a difficult spot for a guy who is permitting a 40.5% hard-hit rate.
Snell may be starting to get it together, allowing just one earned run over his last two starts (12 innings). With that said, he still walked six in that span and gave up seven runs in four innings three starts ago. He's got a 4.45 SIERA and 14.1% walk rate for the year.
We project San Diego to rough up MadBum on their way to a 5.91-4.28 win. That's a total of 10.19 runs, more than 1.5 over the listed total. We have the over cashing 64.3% of the time and assign the bet three stars.