MLB

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 8/19/21

The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.

While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.

In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our projections and batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy-looking team to put up some big point totals.

If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. We'll be focusing exclusively on the main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Brandon Woodruff ($10,700 on FanDuel) or Luis Castillo ($9,700) -- that is the starting point on this four-game slate.

Woodruff has been the better pitcher overall this season. But Castillo has upside, comes at a salary discount, and gets a cushy matchup with the Miami Marlins. While our model leans heavily toward Woodruff, projecting him for 37.3 FanDuel points -- compared to Castillo's projection of 30.8 -- I will have more of Castillo than I do Woodruff, and I think Castillo will wind up as the night's most popular arm.

Let's break it down.

For the season, Woodruff owns a 3.31 SIERA, 29.9% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate. He's been really nice. His matchup is good enough, as well, as the St. Louis Cardinals have been a mostly mediocre offense in 2021, with the Red Birds holding a lowly 3.38 implied total for tonight. The huge issue with Woodruff is that he was yanked after 74 pitches last time out, with injury reportedly not being a factor in that decision. That's not ideal. However, he had thrown at least 100 pitches in five straight starts before that. Will he be on a pitch count again today? I don't know. That uncertainty makes him an uneasy investment at $10,700.

Castillo has had a really weird campaign. His SIERA (4.24) and strikeout rate (23.0%) are career-worst clips by a healthy margin. He mostly got back on track in June and July, recording strikeout rates of 25.6% and 26.8%, respectively, in those months. Then, of course, he got nuked for eight runs in 3 1/3 innings in a good matchup with the Cleveland Indians two starts ago. But if we're willing to remove that nightmare outing, Castillo has allowed three or fewer runs in every start since May 23rd.

The matchup with Miami is about as good as it gets, and Castillo's strikeout ability raises both his floor and his ceiling. I'm going to land on him quite a bit in my lineups, and I think you can make an argument for him as the superior play even if there weren't concerns with Woodruff's pitch count.

If you want to get weird in tournaments, you can plug in Jameson Taillon ($8.700). I won't be doing that.

He's the only other hurler our projections have with more than 25 FanDuel points, but Taillon's improved results look to be the byproduct of some good fortune. In the second half, he's got a .265 BABIP and 4.3% homer-per-fly-ball rate. Those numbers probably won't last. His 4.85 xFIP in that time is more indicative of his pitching than his 1.53 ERA is. On top of all that, the Minnesota Twins sit seventh in wOBA (.358) over the last seven days and are getting a big park boost in the Bronx. Pass.

Stacks to Target

New York Yankees

Man, the New York Yankees are gonna be super chalky tonight. Coming off a headline-grabbing sweep of the Boston Red Sox, New York brings a gaudy 6.35 implied total into a home date with John Gant in what shapes up as a bullpen game for the Twins.

I will have plenty of Yankees stacks, but I'll say this -- if you fade them or go light on them tonight and they end up underwhelming, you could gain a ton of leverage.

DJ LeMahieu ($3,400) and Anthony Rizzo ($3,500) will likely hit atop the order and come at modest salaries. Rizzo has mashed to the tune of a .390 wOBA and 42.4% fly-ball rate since coming to the Yankees. Rizzo checks every box and may end up with the highest draft percentage among hitters. Giancarlo Stanton ($3,600) isn't that high in salary, either, and you know what kind of pop he brings to the table.

Of course, if you have the coin for Aaron Judge ($4,300) and Joey Gallo ($3,800), go for it. Gallo has been meh in his time with the Yanks, but he's donged three times in the last six games and has a .356 wOBA and 48.6% hard-hit rate against righties for the full season.

Rougned Odor ($2,800) and Gary Sanchez ($2,500) figure to attract attention as low-salary options who will likely be in decent spots in the lineup. Brett Gardner ($2,200) and Andrew Velazquez ($2,100) are salaried where they are for a reason, but they free up cap space and can be differientiators in Yankees' stacks. Gardner is actually the top point-per-dollar hitter, according to our projections.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Coming into his last start, which was a matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Taijuan Walker had surrendered at least three runs in five straight outings -- allowing a total of 23 earned runs and 10 taters across those 21 frames. So obviously he fanned eight over 6 1/3 innings of two-hit, one-run ball against the Dodgers. Baseball, man.

I'm willing to bet on LA's offense in tonight's rematch, and oddsmakers are, too. The Dodgers' 5.31 implied total is the second-best clip on the slate and the only other implied total above 5.00 (as of early Thursday afternoon).

The issue with the Dodgers is that -- even more so than the Yankees -- they have a host a high-salary sticks. Trea Turner ($4,400) and Max Muncy ($4,000) could go nuts if you can find the salary for them. Muncy hit two tanks last night and has a .463 wOBA at home versus righties this campaign. Turner's power-speed combo gives him a massive ceiling every time out.

Justin Turner ($3,800), Will Smith ($3,500), and Cody Bellinger ($3,400) will likely be in the meat of the order. Bellinger has been brutal this season, but he does have a 52.8% fly-ball rate in the second half.

There's a lot to like about Corey Seager ($3,200) at this salary, especially if he's hitting fourth again, while Chris Taylor ($3,200) and A.J. Pollock ($3,000) are two other modest-salaried bats worth targeting. If Matt Beaty ($2,100) gets in the lineup, he needs to be on our radar.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers can feast on Jon Lester. Overall, Lester is striking out an ugly 14.2% of hitters and sports a 5.31 SIERA. Righties have mauled him to the tune of a .392 wOBA.

With no one at a salary above $3,600, Milwaukee pairs nicely with a stud pitcher and one of the aforementioned stacks.

Give me all the Willy Adames ($3,300). He's posted a .400 wOBA since being traded to the Brewers, has the platoon advantage against Lester, and rates out as the second-best bat, per our numbers. Oh, and he's $3,300. He's our top point-per-dollar bat among those with a salary of at least $3,000.

Eduardo Escobar ($3,600) and Avisail Garcia ($3,000) make tons of sense, too -- especially Garcia. He has a .429 wOBA in the second half, and for the season, Garcia has smacked lefties for a .433 wOBA. The switch-hitting Escobar boasts a .352 wOBA and 46.8% fly-ball rate as a right-handed hitter.

Righties Lorenzo Cain ($2,800) and Luis Urias ($2,700) are worth checking out as economical inclusions to a stack. Christian Yelich ($3,500) has really struggled against southpaws this season (.294 wOBA), but that should keep the masses away.