MLB Betting Guide: Friday 8/27/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
Under 10.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Tonight's Tampa Bay Rays-Baltimore Orioles clash gives us a starting pitching matchup of Shane McClanahan and Matt Harvey, and our model points to the under being a good bet.
A lot of that has to do with McClanahan. A rookie, McClanahan has been excellent in 2021, pitching his way to a 3.58 SIERA, 28.5% strikeout rate and 15.2% swinging-strike rate. Tampa usually caps him at a fairly low pitch count, but McClanahan did toss 101 pitches two starts ago. While the O's are slightly above league average against southpaws (.319 wOBA), McClanahan is one of the night's top pitching options, per our DFS projections.
We can actually say some nice things about Harvey, too. In the second half, he's limiting hitters to a .299 wOBA while raising his strikeout rate (18.2%) and lowering his walk rate (5.2%), compared to his first-half marks. An 18.2% strikeout rate is still meh, but he gets a lift in that department against a Rays offense that has the fourth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers (25.5%).
Our model projects Tampa Bay to win 5.74-3.93 for a total of 9.67 runs. We have the under winning out 58.3% of the time.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies
Over 8.5 (-125): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Let's get this out of the way -- Aaron Nola might mow through the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. That's a very real possibility. But our model has the Philadelphia Phillies' offense doing a lot of damage against Taylor Widener, which should do the majority of the work to get this to the over.
Widener can miss bats (24.0% strikeout rate), but he's giving up gobs of hard contact, which won't play well at Citizens Bank Park. For the season, the Snakes' righty is permitting a 45.2% hard-hit rate and 48.3% fly-ball rate. That's unsurprisingly led to a lot of homers -- 1.93 per nine to be exact. In the second half, he's giving up a .368 wOBA, 46.5% hard-hit rate and 50.0% fly-ball rate. Whoo boy.
Our algorithm has Philly plating 6.06 runs, so we don't need much from Arizona's offense to get to the over.
As for Nola, he's good (3.34 SIERA and 29.3% strikeout rate), and the D-Backs' lineup is not good (28th in wOBA versus righties). But baseball is weird, and Nola has posted some head-scratching results across his last nine starts, including allowing seven earned runs to the Miami Marlins and five to the Washington Nationals. He's given up at least two earned runs in four of his past five appearances.
We have Philadelphia winning 6.06-4.11. That's 10.17 total runs, and our numbers give the over 64.0% odds of hitting.
