MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 9/2/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
Over 8.0 (-115): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Mike Minor and Triston McKenzie are squaring off, and our model has over 8.0 as the top bet of the night.
While Minor's season-long numbers -- including a 4.18 SIERA -- aren't too bad, he's struggling in the second half. He's permitted at least three earned runs in five straight starts, giving up exactly two jacks in four of his last five outings. For the year, he's been tagged for 1.66 homers per nine innings by righties, so Cleveland Indians thumpers Franmil Reyes and Jose Ramirez could give him fits. We project Minor to allow 1.16 homers, the most of the night.
McKenzie can miss bats (28.5% strikeout rate), but he's also walking too many guys (12.5% walk rate) while surrendering a ton of fly-balls (52.1% fly-ball rate). He's allowing 1.58 homers per nine. The youngster has certainly been better of late, but this will be the fourth time the Kansas City Royals have seen McKenzie -- something that usually works in the offense's favor.
In all, we forecast a 5.07-4.75 win for Cleveland. That's 9.82 total runs, and our algorithm gives the over a 61.1% chance to win out.
Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
Over 12.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
With Touki Toussaint and Chi Chi Gonzalez going tonight, not even a sky-high total of 12.5 is high enough, according to our numbers.
We really like the Atlanta Braves' chances of going nuts, as we project them for a whopping 7.23 runs. Gonzalez isn't very good. He's got a 5.15 SIERA for the year along with a lowly 13.2% strikeout rate. He also gives up a 38.2% hard-hit rate. As you can imagine, Gonzalez and Coors don't mix well, with hitters roasting him for a .358 wOBA, 44.6% hard-hit rate and 9.4% strikeout rate in Denver.
Toussaint is a much better pitcher than Gonzalez. The Atlanta righty is sporting a 4.21 SIERA and 24.1% strikeout rate. Toussaint will obviously have Coors working against him, but in addition to that, the Colorado Rockies' offense has been stellar lately. Over the last 30 days, the Rox own the second-best wOBA (.346) with the sixth-lowest strikeout rate (20.3%). The emergence of guys like Connor Joe, C.J. Cron and Brendan Rodgers has taken Colorado's offense to a new level, and we have them plating 6.37 runs today.
With a projected final score of 7.23-6.37 in favor of the Braves, our model has 13.60 runs being scored -- 1.6 above the total. We think the over hits 59.9% of the time.
