MLB Betting Guide: Friday 9/3/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Over 9.0 (-110): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
It'll be Rich Hill and Sean Nolin starting tonight for the New York Mets and Washington Nationals, respectively, and we should see a good amount of offense.
Hill has gotten worse as the year has progressed, which isn't all that surprising given that he's 41 years old. In the second half, hitters have tagged him for a .351 wOBA, and Hill's strikeout rate sits at 17.8%, a drop of 5.8 percentage points from his first-half strikeout rate. On paper, the Nats' offense doesn't look all that good outside of superstar Juan Soto, but Washington is a respectable 11th in wOBA over the last 30 days (.326).
Nolin has 43 2/3 career MLB frames to his name, and he's struggled to a 5.12 SIERA and 13.6% strikeout rate in them. He's made three starts for the Nationals this year and permitted four taters in 12 1/3 innings. Amazingly, two of those three starts have come against the same Mets squad he'll see today. In those two previous matchups, the Mets got to Nolin for six earned runs and three homers in 8 1/3 innings.
Our model has the Mets winning by a score of 5.41-5.03, so we see a lot of offense in this one -- 10.44 runs to be exact. We have this game going over the 9.0-run total 55.8% of the time.
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Cardinals +1.5 (-134): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Cardinals Moneyline (+160): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
This game features a dope pitching matchup between Adam Wainwright and Freddy Peralta. Both guys have been stellar this season.
Peralta has been dominant in his move back to the rotation, amassing a 3.45 SIERA and 34.0% strikeout rate. But if we're nitpicking -- and I'm definitely nitpicking -- Peralta has slowed a bit. In the second half, his strikeout rate is only 29.9% after it was 35.1% in the first half, and he's allowing a .269 wOBA since the break after giving up a .233 wOBA in the first half.
Is he still awesome? Yes. But he may be tiring a bit as he's already thrown 121 1/3 innings. His previous single-season high in the bigs was 85. Additionally, Peralta is coming off a stint on the injured list, so the Milwaukee Brewers will likely be extra careful with his pitch count tonight.
Back in 2019, Wainwright posted a 4.70 SIERA and appeared to be at the twilight of his excellent career. He has totally turned it around and is sporting his lowest SIERA (3.93) since 2015. A .258 BABIP hints at some good fortune, but he's also allowing a meager 31.6% hard-hit rate. Wainwright is on fire right now, as he's coming off an August in which he permitted a .219 wOBA, 22.0% strikeout rate and 3.7% walk rate en route to a 1.43 ERA.
Riding Wainwright's great form and an offense that is sixth-best in wOBA across the last 30 days (.337), the St. Louis Cardinals should be up for the fight against Peralta and the Milwaukee Brewers.
We have this game as basically a coin flip, projecting the Brew Crew to win 51.9% of the time. That means there is some value on the Cards. At +160 on the moneyline, St. Louis' implied win odds are just 38.5% while we have them winning 48.1% of the time. We also give them a 65.7% chance to cover as 1.5-run 'dogs.
