MLB Betting Guide: Friday 9/10/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers

Over 9.0 (+100): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

Michael Wacha and Matt Boyd tangle tonight as the Detroit Tigers host the Tampa Bay Rays. Our model likes the over in this one, and we think the Rays have a big day against Boyd.

For the season, Boyd has pitched to a 4.55 SIERA and 19.9% strikeout rate. Once a guy who generated a lot of swings and misses, Boyd's strikeout rate is a whopping 10.3 percentage points lower than it was in 2019. Right-handed hitters have produced a 44.7% fly-ball rate against him, and the Rays have several studs who will hit from the right side, including Nelson Cruz, Randy Arozarena and Wander Franco. We project Tampa Bay to plate 5.61 runs.

Wacha has a friendly matchup with the Tigers, but we shouldn't need too much from Detroit's offense to get us to the over. Wacha's overall numbers aren't too bad (4.07 SIERA), but he's had a gopher-ball problem, allowing 1.88 jacks per nine this season. This isn't a new thing. Since the start of 2019, Wacha has been tagged for 1.93 homers per nine. We have Detroit pushing across 4.24 runs.

In all, our model projects 9.85 runs to be scored in this game. We think the over hits 56.4% of the time, and you can get it at +100.

Editor's note: Boyd has been scratched and will not pitch.

Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Indians

Cleveland +1.5 (-130): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Cleveland Moneyline (+130): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

The Cleveland Indians are home 'dogs tonight versus the Milwaukee Brewers, and while our model ever so slightly favors Milwaukee in this game, we think there's value on Cleveland.

The Indians will send Eli Morgan to the hill. Morgan is quietly having a nice rookie campaign, posting a 4.33 SIERA, 23.6% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate. He gives up too many fly balls (52.8% rate), leading to 2.0 homers per nine, but he can succeed in this matchup. The Brew Crew own the seventh-highest strikeout rate (24.3%), and Morgan has permitted more than two runs in a start just once in his last four outings.

Adrian Houser is going for the Brewers, and he's fresh off a complete-game shutout against the St. Louis Cardinals. But Houser's overall numbers this year are fairly blah, including a 4.61 SIERA, 18.2% strikeout rate and 7.3% swinging-strike rate. His strikeout rate in the second half is a meager 15.8%.

We give the Brewers a 50.2% chance to win in a game that's basically a coin flip, per our numbers. Cleveland's 49.8% win odds are better than the 43.5% implied odds from their +130 moneyline price, and we also predict them to cover 61.5% of the time as 1.5-run underdogs.