FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 9/11/21
The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.
While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.
In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our projections and batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy-looking team to put up some big point totals.
If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. We'll be focusing exclusively on the main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
There are three pitching options I'm really into -- Walker Buehler ($9,700 on FanDuel), Charlie Morton ($9,000) and Luis Garcia ($8,300). Our model ranks them in that order, but I prefer Morton.
Morton's matchup is excellent as he's taking on the Miami Marlins, and that's what puts him at the top of the heap for me. Over the last 30 days, Miami is dead last in wOBA (.278) with the second-highest strikeout rate (26.9%) The Marlins' 2.91 implied total is laughably low. Morton owns a 3.51 SIERA and 28.6% strikeout rate, and he could post a huge score in this spot.
Buehler is opposite the San Diego Padres. Earlier this year, San Diego would've been a much, much tougher draw than what Morton has, but the Padres have the second-worst wOBA over the last month (.283). Buehler is coming off his first bad start since May, but he can bounce back in this matchup. The Padres' 3.15 implied total is the second-lowest on the slate, and Buehler sports a 26.3% strikeout rate and 3.71 SIERA for the year.
Garcia also gets a delightful matchup, facing a Los Angeles Angels offense that sits 28th in wOBA across the last 30 days (.288) with the 4th-highest strikeout rate (25.7%). The Halos' 3.43 implied total is a number we can feel great about, and I think you can make a case for ranking Garcia over Buehler once you factor in salary -- although Garcia has surpassed 80 pitches just once in his last four starts. Garcia brings a 3.61 SIERA and 28.5% strikeout rate into this one.
Luis Castillo ($9,900) is worth a shout, too, as an upside guy who probably won't be as popular as the three dudes we just broke down. Castillo is up against the St. Louis Cardinals, who hold a 4.17 implied total. The Cards have been a slightly above-average offense in the second half and aren't nearly as good of a matchup as the Marlins, Padres or Angels. But Castillo has been stellar since the break -- a 27.9% strikeout rate in that time -- and is capable of a big day.
Stacks to Target
Houston Astros
Jose Suarez hasn't been that bad this year (4.26 SIERA), but the Houston Astros are just too good against lefties. As such, the Astros are showing a slate-best 5.07 implied total.
Houston's righties are where we should focus, and that foursome of Jose Altuve ($3,800), Alex Bregman ($3,200), Carlos Correa ($3,500) and Yuli Gurriel ($2,900) isn't super hard to find room for thanks to the salaries of Bregman and Gurriel. Aledmys Diaz ($2,100) would be a fantastic value option if he's in the lineup.
Lefty Michael Brantley ($2,600) offers some cap relief, as well, while Kyle Tucker ($3,200) and Yordan Alvarez ($3,400) can do work in same-sided matchups.
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners are a sneaky-good stack against Humberto Castellanos, and they have just two guys salaried over $3,400. Castellanos has pitched to a meh 4.70 SIERA and 18.6% strikeout rate in his brief MLB career, and Seattle's 4.78 implied total is a number we can target.
Seattle's two higher-salary players are Kyle Seager ($3,500) and Mitch Haniger ($3,400), and they can be pillars of Mariners stacks. Seager has put up 34 taters this season and has a 40.9% hard-hit rate and 52.9% fly-ball rate in the split.
I likely mix and match J.P. Crawford ($2,800), Abraham Toro ($2,900), Ty France ($2,900) and Jarred Kelenic ($2,500) alongside Haniger and Seager. Kelenic has stunk, but he's an elite prospect at a low salary who has a 41.1% fly-ball rate against righties.
Los Angeles Dodgers
It's rare for the Los Angeles Dodgers to be a contrarian stack on a small slate, but that could happen tonight.
They're getting a mere 4.35 implied total versus Chris Paddack, and that is just the fifth-highest as of early Saturday afternoon. While Paddack is a fine pitcher (4.01 SIERA and 21.5% strikeout rate), he's not a guy we should be too afraid of. He's getting mauled by righties this year to the tune of a .390 wOBA.
Mookie Betts ($3,900), Justin Turner ($3,800), Will Smith ($3,500) and Chris Taylor ($3,100) are LA's top right-handed bats. Betts has posted a 41.4% hard-hit rate and .374 wOBA against right-handers. Smith has registered reverse splits with a .410 wOBA in righty-righty matchups.
Lefties Max Muncy ($3,900) and Corey Seager ($3,700) are plenty viable, too. Muncy has a .381 wOBA with the platoon advantage.