4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Tuesday 9/14/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. These low-salary picks sometimes being the difference between a good lineup and a great lineup isn't much different than DFS for other sports. But value plays being able to completely make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play is somewhat unique to MLB DFS.
Erick Fedde, SP, Nationals
FanDuel Salary: $7,200
We have two decent low-salary arms today -- Erick Fedde and Anthony DeSclafani ($7,800). DeSclafani gets a matchup with the San Diego Padres while Fedde is taking on the Miami Marlins. Even though the Padres are struggling of late, the Marlins are still a better matchup, so I lean toward Fedde.
After serving as one of the worst starting pitchers in the game the last two years, struggling to a 5.59 SIERA and 12.4% strikeout rate across the 2019 and 2020 campaigns, Fedde has become a respectable hurler this season. Over 117 innings, he's pitched to a 4.37 SIERA and 21.6% strikeout rate.
But let's not kid ourselves too much -- the big draw here is the matchup with Miami. Over the last 30 days, the Marlins are dead last in wOBA (.273) with the second-highest strikeout rate (26.3%). That makes them a perfect offense to pick on.
In two starts versus Miami this year, Fedde has amassed 14 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings of one-run ball. While Fedde is unlikely to flirt with the ceiling you can get from high-salary guys like Gerrit Cole and Frankie Montas, we project him as the second-best point-per-dollar hurler on the slate.
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Nationals
FanDuel Salary: $2,000
Ryan Zimmerman has a lot going for him.
He'll have the platoon advantage tonight against Jesus Luzardo, a southpaw who has allowed a .393 wOBA, 46.6% fly-ball rate and 2.47 jacks per nine to righties. Yes, please.
Zimmerman boasts a solid .342 wOBA in the second half, and versus left-handers in 2021, he's mashed his way to a .372 wOBA with 6 taters in only 102 plate appearances in the split.
The Washington Nationals' 4.52 implied total isn't that juicy, but we project them to plate 5.72 runs. They can be a good under-the-radar stack, and Zimmerman is a minimum-salaried way to get a piece of the action. He's our top-ranked point-per-dollar bat by a fairly healthy margin.
Brad Miller, 1B, Phillies
FanDuel Salary: $2,400
Brad Miller has become a solid value target down the stretch, and he's worth looking at again tonight.
The Philadelphia Phillies are at home versus Adrian Sampson, and they're showing a 5.46 implied total, the second-highest of the night. They're going to be a go-to stack, and Miller will likely end up as one of the night's chalk bats.
There's a lot to like.
Sampson has given up a .378 wOBA to lefties in a small sample this season, and he put up a mere 16.9% strikeout rate in 81 2/3 innings in Triple-A earlier this campaign. He's not good.
Miller sports a .368 wOBA and 45.9% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage. His homer projection of 0.35, per our model, is the ninth-highest of the night. Only one of the eight guys with a dinger projection above 0.35 have a salary under $3,500, and none of them are salaried under $3,000.
Miller is our number-two point-per-dollar bat.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B/OF, White Sox
FanDuel Salary: $2,300
Naughton has a lowly 14.5% strikeout rate in his brief MLB career, and he never had gaudy strikeout numbers in the minor leagues. He should be in a world of hurt tonight against a Chicago lineup that is a nightmare for left-handers.
Vaughn is a way to get a piece of the Pale Hose without using too much salary, and he'll be hitting from the right side. Against southpaws this year, Vaughn has registered a .410 wOBA, 41.0% fly-ball rate and 8 homers in 135 plate appearances. We slot him as the seventh-best point-per-dollar hitter.