MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 9/16/21
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For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 8.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Angels +1.5 (-115): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Cobb has been really good this year, sporting a 3.66 SIERA and 25.7% strikeout rate. However, this is Cobb's first start off the injured list, with his last outing coming on July 23rd, and he didn't go on a rehab assignment. It's not hard to envision the Los Angeles Angels easing him back, which could lead to more work for an LA pen that is 11th-worst in reliever SIERA (4.06).
On top of that, the Chicago White Sox are a rough matchup. They sit fifth in wOBA for the year (.328) and sixth over the last 30 days (.335). We project the Pale Hose to plate 5.17 runs.
Lopez has shown well this year (3.84 SIERA) in a small sample and gets a friendly landing spot against the Angels' offense. But if the White Sox do what we project, we don't need too much from the Halos' offense to get us to the over. Lopez has kept the long ball in check this season through 44 frames, but in 210 1/3 innings across 2019 and 2020, he gave up 1.88 jacks per nine. Our model has LA scoring 4.61 runs.
In total, we have 9.78 runs being scored, and we think the over hits 60.8% of the time. We also project the Angels to cover as 1.5-run dogs at a rate of 59.3%.
Under 10.0 (-105): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Let's get this out of the way -- the Yanks' offense should thrive versus Chris Ellis. In a small sample of 22 2/3 career MLB innings, Ellis has recorded a 5.25 SIERA while allowing a 48.3% fly-ball rate, and nothing in his minor-league track record points to big-league success. The only two positives I can say for Ellis is that baseball is weird and New York's offense has disappointed many times in 2021.
We will likely need Jordan Montgomery to deal to keep this game under 10 runs, and he's capable of doing just that. His season-long numbers -- including a 23.7% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging-strike rate -- are pretty nice. In 10 2/3 innings versus the O's this year, Montgomery has permitted one earned run while punching out 12.
We project this to be a 5.41-4.10 win for New York. That's 9.51 total runs, and we think the under wins out 52.5% of the time.