3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 9/17/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Nolan Arenado To Hit a Home Run (+430)
This might be the first time I've looked to Nolan Arenado this season, and it's because he's in a great spot.
Arenado is a superb hitter -- there's no debate about that -- and frankly, I'm not sure why I haven't looked to him more this year. Nonetheless, he has a great matchup versus Vincent Velasquez, and we should be all over Arenado's home run prop. Velasquez was recently signed by the San Diego Padres and is set to start tonight. Versus righties in 2021, Velasquez has given up 2.08 homers per nine (HR/9), a 4.94 xFIP, 12.1% walk rate, 46.9% fly-ball rate, and 36.2% hard-contact rate.
We turn to Arenado, who comes in with a .239 ISO, .112 wRC+, 48.8% fly-ball rate, and 32.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Arenado has hit 24 of his 32 home runs versus right-handed pitchers, and this is a prime matchup for him.
Trevor Story To Hit a Home Run (+360)
The Colorado Rockies have a fantastic matchup, and they could hit multiple home runs.
We know the Rockies aren't viewed as an elite offensive team, especially outside of Coors, but tonight we could see them have a big evening. They are going up against Josiah Gray, who is in his first year in the MLB. It's not going well for him. He's allowing a .330 ISO, 4.65 xFIP, 3.12 HR/9, 55.9% fly-ball rate, 35.6% hard-contact rate, and 23.7% homer-pr-fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. He's a great pitcher to attack.
Trevor Story comes in with a .202 ISO, 39.4% fly-ball rate, and 42.3% hard-contact versus right-handed pitchers this season. This is another classic example of matching the hitter to the pitcher, and Story is in a great spot to go deep.
Logan Webb Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+104)
Logan Webb has been awesome this season, and we should consider his strikeout prop tonight.
Webb has been unbelievable for the San Francisco Giants. He comes in with a 26.2% strikeout rate, and he has posted a single-game strikeout rate above that mark in five of his last nine starts. Since the beginning of August, Webb has spun a single-game strikeout rate of 27.6% or higher five times, including three starts over 38.1%. He is peaking late in the season, and with the plus money on the over, that's where we should look.
He is at home and going up the Atlanta Braves, who come in with a 24.1% strikeout rate versus right-handers, which is the 13th-highest in the league. This is a solid spot for Webb to amass plenty of strikeouts.