MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/21/21
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For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 8.5 (-102): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Dunning has a 4.02 SIERA and 22.3% strikeout rate. He's solid. But one of his big bugaboos this year is giving up too many homers on the road. For the season, he's permitting 1.45 jacks per nine in his travels, including 2.19 per nine away to righties. While home/road splits aren't always the best thing to look at for hurlers, those numbers are noteworthy for a guy due to face right-handers Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge in the Bronx.
Also, Dunning hasn't gone more than 80 pitches in a start since June 25th, so the Yanks should see a lot of a Texas Rangers bullpen that has the ninth-worst SIERA and third-worst strikeout rate.
New York's offense has whiffed -- literally -- in some great matchups of late, and Dunning isn't that bad. So I understand any hesitancy you may have. But our projections forecast the Pinstripes to score 5.67 runs tonight.
Jordan Montgomery is taking the ball for New York. He's been good this season with a 24.8% strikeout rate and has given up one run or fewer in four of his last five outings. But similar to Dunning, Montgomery can have issues keeping the ball in the park. He's allowing a 43.9% fly-ball rate at home, and really, we're not relying on Texas' offense for too much given what we have the Yankees' lineup doing.
Our model has this game as a 5.67-4.13 win for the Yankees. That's 9.80 total runs, and we give the over a 61.0% chance to win out.
Over 8.0 (-118): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
This is a puzzling line, and our model feels strongly about the over.
Jax has struggled in his initial 69 MLB frames, posting a 5.13 SIERA and 17.8% strikeout rate. He wasn't that good in Triple-A, either, with a 4.53 xFIP in 40 2/3 innings there in 2021. He's being hammered for 2.48 jacks per nine in the bigs, and we project the Cubs to plate 5.35 runs tonight.
We don't need much from the Minnesota Twins' offense to get to the over if the Cubs pummel Jax, but the Twins can do work against Mills. The Chicago righty owns a mere 17.0% strikeout rate this year and has been mauled by lefties to the tune of a .389 wOBA. That should spell trouble against the likes of Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler -- to say nothing of right-handed mashers Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. We peg the Twins to score 4.90 runs.
The one scary thing is the wind -- it's blowing straight in today at Wrigley. That's something to watch for, but other than that, it'll all systems go on the over.
In all, we project there to be a total of 10.25 runs. That's more than two runs over the current line, and over 8.0 is priced at -118. We have the over hitting 64.6% of the time and rate it as a four-star play, our top bet of the day.