4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Friday 9/24/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. These low-salary picks sometimes being the difference between a good lineup and a great lineup isn't much different than DFS for other sports. But value plays being able to completely make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play is somewhat unique to MLB DFS.
Sonny Gray, P, Reds
FanDuel Salary: $8,800
Six arms have a higher salary than Sonny Gray does tonight, and I'm really into him in his matchup with the Washington Nationals. Oddsmakers are into him, too. The Nats are swinging it well of late, but they're getting just a 3.69 implied total at Great American Ball Park.
Gray has pitched to a 3.76 SIERA and 27.4% strikeout rate this season. He went six dominant innings versus Washinton earlier this campaign, allowing only two hits and a walk while punching out five.
Our model projects Gray for 32.1 FanDuel points. While that slots him only seventh on the slate, Gray and the number-two pitcher (Nathan Eovaldi) are separated by a mere 1.2 FanDuel points, per our numbers. Gray is plenty viable, and the salary savings he offers -- even if it's not a huge amount -- is helpful on a Coors slate.
D.J. Peters, OF, Rangers
FanDuel Salary: $2,400
The Texas Rangers are an enticing stack today and should be contrarian. They boast a 4.73 implied total against lefty Alexander Wells at Camden Yards. Other than the matchup, what makes Texas appealing is that they have just two projected starters salaried over $3,000, so they can be paired with Coors bats.
DJ Peters is a low-salary way to get right-handed exposure to Texas, and righties are where we should focus. In that split this season, Wells has been hammered for a .449 wOBA while striking out just 10.7% of hitters -- although his MLB sample is small.
Peters has put up a 44.7% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage and rates as our second-best point-per-dollar bat.
Joey Wendle, 3B/SS, Rays
FanDuel Salary: $2,500
Cabrera's first 20 1/3 MLB frames have been ugly, as he's allowed 12 runs and 2.21 homers per nine. He does have a sparkling minor-league track record, but the bigs have been a stiff challenge for Cabrera thus far. Also, he hasn't thrown 80 pitches in a game yet in The Show, so the Rays should get to do work against a Miami Marlins 'pen that is eighth-worst in SIERA (4.36) in the last 30 days.
Wendle has a .340 wOBA with the platoon advantage and usually isn't a pinch-hit risk if he comes up against a southpaw later in the game. We peg him for 12.8 FanDuel points and slot him as the fifth-best point-per-dollar hitter.
Willy Adames, SS, Brewers
FanDuel Salary: $2,700
Willy Adames is a bet-on-talent play. Adames sports a .378 wOBA and 17 jacks in 378 plate appearances with the Milwaukee Brewers, and it's rare for us to be able to get access to those kinds of numbers for $2,700.
The salary is where it is because Adames is just coming back from a multi-week absence. In his three games back, he's got only two hits, but he won't be at this salary for long once he resumes doing what he was doing before going down.
Adames is up against Tylor Megill. The New York Mets' rookie righty can miss bats, but he's also giving up a lot of homers. While lefties have done the bulk of the damage, our model forecasts Megill to give up a slate-high 1.15 homers tonight.
We project Adames as the third-best point-per-dollar hitter on the slate.