MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 5/10/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves
Red Sox Moneyline (+112): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Tuesday's Boston Red Sox-Atlanta Braves clash pits two early-season breakout pitchers against each other as Garrett Whitlock and Kyle Wright square off.
Whitlock made 46 relief appearances for Boston in 2021 and has transitioned to the rotation for this campaign. It's gone extremely well. The right-hander owns a 35.8% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate, and 16.3% swinging-strike rate through his initial 21 2/3 frames of the season. With a sparkling 1.8 SIERA, Whitlock is looking like a potential ace-level arm, and the lone knock on him is that he's still not built up to a normal starting workload, topping out at 78 pitches, which is his lone appearance with more than 61 pitches.
Wright is a former number-five overall MLB Draft pick who was struggling in the bigs prior to this year. His average fastball velocity is up 1.7 MPH, and the Bravers' hurler sports a 2.48 SIERA, 30.6% strikeout rate, 12.9% swinging-strike rate, and 5.8% walk rate. He's been great overall, but his single-game swinging-strike rates have fallen dramatically in the past two games (6.2% and 10.3%). Wright has also faced the meh offenses of the Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, and Miami Marlins in three of his five starts.
These are two good pitchers and a pair of quality teams, but our model leans toward Boston. We give the underdog Sox a 51.2% chance to win outright and have them winning by a score of 4.89-4.57. We mark Boston on the moneyline as a one-star wager.
Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels
Rays Moneyline (-116): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Rays -1.5 (+155): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The Tampa Bay Rays are road favorites today at the Los Angeles Angels -- our model thinks they should be bigger favorites.
Corey Kluber is getting the ball for Tampa Bay while it is Reid Detmers' turn for the Halos. Advantage Rays.
Kluber was pretty solid last season for the New York Yankees (4.37 SIERA), and he's upped his game so far in 2022, pitching his way to a 3.32 SIERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, and 12.7% swinging-strike rate across 26 2/3 innings. On the flip side, the Angels' offense is one of the game's best, and Kluber has failed to top 90 pitches this year. But the workload isn't a huge concern with Tampa Bay's relievers posting a better-than-average SIERA (3.35).
Detmers struggled in a brief call-up last year, and he's put up very similar numbers so far this season. In 42 2/3 career innings, he's got a 4.67 SIERA and 19.3% strikeout rate, and he's been tagged for 1.69 homers per nine.
Our numbers forecast the Rays to win by a score of 5.42-3.96. We think Tampa comes out on top 63.3% of the time. The -116 moneyline price implies win odds of only 53.7%, so there's good value on the Rays to win outright, which we assign a three-star rating. We also like Tampa Bay on the runline. We project them to cover at a 52.2% clip, and they can be had at a +115 runline price.
