MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 5/12/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 7.5 (-105): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Oakland Moneyline (+100): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Pitcher James Kaprielian is going for the A's. Kaprielian had the best season of his career in 2021, finishing with a 4.22 SIERA, 24.5% strikeout rate and 10.9% swinging-strike rate. He has, however, had a gopher-ball issue, permitting 1.52 dingers per nine in his career. The Tigers are a fairly soft matchup, though.
Beau Brieske has just 15 MLB innings to his name, and it hasn't gone well. Counting his big-league time, he's thrown only 25 frames above Double-A, and nothing in his statistical profile suggests he's ready for The Show. That's reflected in his 5.79 SIERA and 11.1% strikeout rate in his 15 MLB innings. Even though Oakland's offense is hot trash, they should have some success today.
Our algorithm projects the A's to win by a score of 5.06-4.09, and we give them win odds of 58.1%. That makes an Oakland moneyline bet a two-star play.
We also have a heavy lean on the over, which we forecast to hit 63.4% of the time and rate as a strong three-star bet.
Cincinnati Moneyline (+122): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Connor Overton is taking the ball for the Reds, and he has only 26 innings under his belt at this level. He did light up Triple-A this year, though, to the tune of a 29.7% strikeout rate and 15.2% swinging-strike rate, and his minor-league numbers overall are promising. He benefits today from a date with a Pirates offense that FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections peg as the second-worst.
JT Brubaker is up for Pittsburgh, and he has some solid numbers, including 4.03 SIERA and 24.3% strikeout rate since the start of 2021. The matchup with the Reds' offense is a nice one as Cincy is currently 24th in wOBA (.291). The big red flag for Brubaker is home runs. He allowed a massive 2.03 jacks per nine across 124 1/3 innings last year, and hitters have a 45.7% fly-ball rate against him so far in 2022.
This game is more or less a coin flip by our numbers, so there's value in the underdog Reds. We have Cincinnati winning 51.7% of the time, and they're listed at +122 on the moneyline. Taking them to win outright is a two-star wager.