MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 5/12/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | Bryan Baker | 8.5 | 5.65 | 49.7% | 33.8% | 20.9% | 11.9% | 6.2% |
| NYM | Joan Adon | 8.5 | 4.65 | 32.3% | 18.9% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| HOU | Josh Winder | 8.5 | 4.48 | 29.4% | 16.6% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| HOU | Chris Archer | 8.5 | 4.33 | 26.8% | 14.8% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| CHW | Luis Gil | 8.0 | 4.27 | 25.8% | 14.1% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| PIT | Connor Overton | 8.0 | 4.27 | 25.8% | 14.1% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| TEX | Jon Heasley | 8.0 | 4.22 | 25.0% | 13.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| MIN | Jose Urquidy | 8.5 | 4.17 | 24.2% | 12.9% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| LAD | Zack Wheeler | 7.5 | 4.07 | 22.6% | 11.8% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| MIN | Luis Garcia | 8.5 | 4.02 | 21.8% | 11.3% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| WSH | Taijuan Walker | 8.5 | 3.85 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| DET | James Kaprielian | 7.5 | 3.82 | 18.7% | 9.3% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| KC | Taylor Hearn | 8.0 | 3.78 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| CIN | JT Brubaker | 8.0 | 3.73 | 17.4% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| NYY | Dylan Cease | 8.0 | 3.73 | 17.4% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| OAK | Beau Brieske | 7.5 | 3.68 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| PHI | Tyler Anderson | 7.5 | 3.43 | 13.3% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| BAL | Jordan Hicks | 8.5 | 3.20 | 10.5% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | NYY | 6.9 | 91.5% | 82.1% | 69.0% | 54.0% | 39.1% | 26.2% | 16.2% |
| Zack Wheeler | LAD | 6.4 | 87.9% | 76.1% | 61.2% | 45.3% | 30.8% | 19.3% | 11.2% |
| Luis Garcia | MIN | 5.3 | 76.8% | 60.2% | 42.8% | 27.5% | 16.1% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
| Taylor Hearn | KC | 4.9 | 72.5% | 54.7% | 37.2% | 22.8% | 12.6% | 6.4% | 2.9% |
| Tyler Anderson | PHI | 4.8 | 70.0% | 51.6% | 34.2% | 20.4% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| Connor Overton | PIT | 4.6 | 67.1% | 48.3% | 31.1% | 17.9% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| Luis Gil | CHW | 4.6 | 66.8% | 47.9% | 30.7% | 17.7% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| James Kaprielian | DET | 4.6 | 66.6% | 47.7% | 30.6% | 17.5% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Joan Adon | NYM | 4.5 | 66.1% | 47.2% | 30.0% | 17.2% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Jose Urquidy | MIN | 4.5 | 65.3% | 46.2% | 29.2% | 16.5% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| JT Brubaker | CIN | 4.3 | 61.4% | 42.0% | 25.5% | 13.8% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Taijuan Walker | WSH | 4.1 | 58.6% | 39.1% | 23.1% | 12.1% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Jordan Hicks | BAL | 4.1 | 58.0% | 38.5% | 22.6% | 11.8% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Chris Archer | HOU | 4.0 | 57.0% | 37.5% | 21.8% | 11.3% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Josh Winder | HOU | 3.7 | 51.0% | 31.7% | 17.3% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Beau Brieske | OAK | 3.4 | 44.4% | 25.8% | 13.1% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Jon Heasley | TEX | 3.1 | 38.0% | 20.5% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Bryan Baker | STL | 2.3 | 20.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all home run props at FanDuel Sportsbook here.
| Batter | Team | Opp | PA | Proj HR |
HR Probability |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins | PHI | LAD | 4.36 | 0.35 | 23.8% | +319 |
| Byron Buxton | MIN | HOU | 4.63 | 0.34 | 23.4% | +328 |
| Salvador Perez | KC | TEX | 4.57 | 0.33 | 22.9% | +336 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | KC | 4.40 | 0.33 | 22.9% | +336 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | MIN | 4.52 | 0.33 | 22.9% | +336 |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | LAD | 4.47 | 0.31 | 21.9% | +356 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | MIN | 4.84 | 0.30 | 21.4% | +367 |
| Brad Miller | TEX | KC | 4.62 | 0.29 | 20.9% | +378 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | MIN | 4.51 | 0.29 | 20.9% | +378 |
| Gavin Sheets | CHW | NYY | 3.97 | 0.29 | 20.9% | +378 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | NYY | CHW | 4.40 | 0.26 | 19.3% | +418 |
| Tyler Naquin | CIN | PIT | 4.17 | 0.25 | 18.7% | +434 |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | MIN | 4.28 | 0.25 | 18.7% | +434 |
| Pete Alonso | NYM | WSH | 4.55 | 0.25 | 18.7% | +434 |
| Brandon Drury | CIN | PIT | 4.72 | 0.24 | 18.2% | +451 |
| Dan Vogelbach | PIT | CIN | 4.27 | 0.24 | 18.2% | +451 |
| Harrison Bader | STL | BAL | 3.90 | 0.24 | 18.2% | +451 |
| A.J. Pollock | CHW | NYY | 4.08 | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | LAD | 4.14 | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Juan Soto | WSH | NYM | 4.52 | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | STL | 4.37 | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | MIN | 4.85 | 0.22 | 17.0% | +490 |
| Rougned Odor | BAL | STL | 4.25 | 0.22 | 17.0% | +490 |
| Josh Bell | WSH | NYM | 4.41 | 0.22 | 17.0% | +490 |
| Colin Moran | CIN | PIT | 4.28 | 0.22 | 17.0% | +490 |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | STL | 4.81 | 0.22 | 17.0% | +490 |
| Nelson Cruz | WSH | NYM | 4.30 | 0.21 | 16.3% | +512 |
| Joey Gallo | NYY | CHW | 4.06 | 0.21 | 16.3% | +512 |
| Tyler O'Neill | STL | BAL | 4.24 | 0.21 | 16.3% | +512 |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | MIN | 4.30 | 0.21 | 16.3% | +512 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | KC | TEX | 4.46 | 0.21 | 16.3% | +512 |
| Luis Robert | CHW | NYY | 4.30 | 0.21 | 16.3% | +512 |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | WSH | 4.66 | 0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
| Austin Hays | BAL | STL | 4.48 | 0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
| Chas McCormick | HOU | MIN | 4.19 | 0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
| Jed Lowrie | OAK | DET | 4.61 | 0.19 | 15.1% | +564 |
| Nolan Arenado | STL | BAL | 4.46 | 0.19 | 15.1% | +564 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | NYY | 4.41 | 0.19 | 15.1% | +564 |
| Mookie Betts | LAD | PHI | 4.60 | 0.19 | 15.1% | +564 |
| Max Kepler | MIN | HOU | 4.52 | 0.19 | 15.1% | +564 |
| Aaron Judge | NYY | CHW | 4.62 | 0.19 | 15.1% | +564 |
| Tim Anderson | CHW | NYY | 4.63 | 0.19 | 15.1% | +564 |
| Jonah Heim | TEX | KC | 4.29 | 0.19 | 15.1% | +564 |
| Jose Siri | HOU | MIN | 4.06 | 0.19 | 15.1% | +564 |
| Nick Castellanos | PHI | LAD | 4.58 | 0.18 | 14.4% | +594 |
| Tommy Pham | CIN | PIT | 4.61 | 0.18 | 14.4% | +594 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | PHI | 4.15 | 0.18 | 14.4% | +594 |
| Alex Bregman | HOU | MIN | 4.62 | 0.18 | 14.4% | +594 |
| Seth Brown | OAK | DET | 4.50 | 0.18 | 14.4% | +594 |
| Jose Miranda | MIN | HOU | 4.47 | 0.18 | 14.4% | +594 |
| Anthony Rizzo | NYY | CHW | 4.51 | 0.17 | 13.7% | +628 |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | PHI | 4.49 | 0.17 | 13.7% | +628 |
| Yasmani Grandal | CHW | NYY | 4.19 | 0.17 | 13.7% | +628 |
| Gary Sanchez | MIN | HOU | 4.40 | 0.17 | 13.7% | +628 |
| Alex Bregman | HOU | MIN | 4.63 | 0.17 | 13.7% | +628 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | CIN | 4.49 | 0.17 | 13.7% | +628 |
| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | HOU | 3.96 | 0.17 | 13.7% | +628 |
| Yadiel Hernandez | WSH | NYM | 4.19 | 0.17 | 13.7% | +628 |
| Marcus Semien | TEX | KC | 4.51 | 0.16 | 13.1% | +666 |
| Yoan Moncada | CHW | NYY | 4.52 | 0.16 | 13.1% | +666 |
| Adolis Garcia | TEX | KC | 4.18 | 0.16 | 13.1% | +666 |
| Eli White | TEX | KC | 3.73 | 0.16 | 13.1% | +666 |
| Gilberto Celestino | MIN | HOU | 3.85 | 0.16 | 13.1% | +666 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | STL | BAL | 4.57 | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Starling Marte | NYM | WSH | 4.77 | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Robbie Grossman | DET | OAK | 4.55 | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Max Kepler | MIN | HOU | 4.58 | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Trey Mancini | BAL | STL | 4.70 | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Austin Meadows | DET | OAK | 4.44 | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Michael Perez | PIT | CIN | 3.83 | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Keibert Ruiz | WSH | NYM | 4.08 | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | HOU | 3.80 | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Jeremy Pena | HOU | MIN | 4.08 | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Martin Maldonado | HOU | MIN | 3.97 | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Martin Maldonado | HOU | MIN | 3.95 | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Jorge Polanco | MIN | HOU | 4.29 | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Chris Taylor | LAD | PHI | 3.82 | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Ben Gamel | PIT | CIN | 4.60 | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Hunter Dozier | KC | TEX | 4.34 | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Anthony Santander | BAL | STL | 4.59 | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Ramon Laureano | OAK | DET | 4.39 | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | KC | 3.96 | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Will Smith | LAD | PHI | 4.26 | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Sheldon Neuse | OAK | DET | 4.72 | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Dylan Carlson | STL | BAL | 4.13 | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Yoshitomo Tsutsugo | PIT | CIN | 4.16 | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Luis Barrera | OAK | DET | 4.16 | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Gilberto Celestino | MIN | HOU | 3.69 | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Jeremy Pena | HOU | MIN | 4.17 | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Justin Turner | LAD | PHI | 4.04 | 0.13 | 10.9% | +816 |
| Mike Moustakas | CIN | PIT | 4.50 | 0.13 | 10.9% | +816 |
| Aaron Hicks | NYY | CHW | 4.17 | 0.13 | 10.9% | +816 |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | LAD | 4.25 | 0.13 | 10.9% | +816 |
| Jorge Polanco | MIN | HOU | 4.25 | 0.13 | 10.9% | +816 |
| Gary Sanchez | MIN | HOU | 4.36 | 0.13 | 10.9% | +816 |
| Matt Reynolds | CIN | PIT | 3.94 | 0.13 | 10.9% | +816 |
| Tommy Edman | STL | BAL | 4.68 | 0.13 | 10.9% | +816 |
| Kole Calhoun | TEX | KC | 4.07 | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Jean Segura | PHI | LAD | 4.03 | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Christian Bethancourt | OAK | DET | 4.27 | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Michael Taylor | KC | TEX | 4.01 | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Trea Turner | LAD | PHI | 4.37 | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Jeimer Candelario | DET | OAK | 4.33 | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | HOU | MIN | 4.39 | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Juan Yepez | STL | BAL | 4.35 | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Jose Miranda | MIN | HOU | 4.18 | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Diego Castillo | PIT | CIN | 4.05 | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | LAD | 3.92 | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Jack Suwinski | PIT | CIN | 3.94 | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Tucker Barnhart | DET | OAK | 3.66 | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Andrew Benintendi | KC | TEX | 4.68 | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | HOU | MIN | 4.41 | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Cody Bellinger | LAD | PHI | 3.93 | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Kyle Farmer | CIN | PIT | 4.05 | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Tyler Stephenson | CIN | PIT | 4.39 | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | OAK | 3.77 | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| MJ Melendez | KC | TEX | 4.12 | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Jonathan Schoop | DET | OAK | 3.99 | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1058 |
| Adam Engel | CHW | NYY | 3.85 | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1058 |
| Lane Thomas | WSH | NYM | 3.75 | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1058 |
| Cole Tucker | PIT | CIN | 3.72 | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1058 |
| Royce Lewis | MIN | HOU | 3.74 | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1058 |
| Miguel Cabrera | DET | OAK | 4.22 | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Robinson Chirinos | BAL | STL | 4.03 | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Leury Garcia | CHW | NYY | 3.74 | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Gio Urshela | MIN | HOU | 4.14 | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Gio Urshela | MIN | HOU | 4.07 | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Tomas Nido | NYM | WSH | 3.99 | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Nick Solak | TEX | KC | 3.85 | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| TJ Friedl | CIN | PIT | 4.83 | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Brendan Donovan | STL | BAL | 3.79 | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| DJ LeMahieu | NYY | CHW | 4.73 | 0.08 | 7.0% | +1320 |
| Mark Canha | NYM | WSH | 4.32 | 0.08 | 7.0% | +1320 |
| Tony Kemp | OAK | DET | 4.83 | 0.08 | 7.0% | +1320 |
| J.D. Davis | NYM | WSH | 4.21 | 0.08 | 7.0% | +1320 |
| Willi Castro | DET | OAK | 3.88 | 0.08 | 7.0% | +1320 |
| Ramon Urias | BAL | STL | 4.14 | 0.08 | 7.0% | +1320 |
| Jorge Mateo | BAL | STL | 3.92 | 0.08 | 7.0% | +1320 |
| Michael Brantley | HOU | MIN | 4.74 | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1507 |
| Josh Donaldson | NYY | CHW | 4.28 | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1507 |
| Odubel Herrera | PHI | LAD | 3.81 | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1507 |
| Whit Merrifield | KC | TEX | 4.23 | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1507 |
| Brandon Nimmo | NYM | WSH | 4.88 | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1507 |
| Harold Castro | DET | OAK | 4.10 | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1507 |
| Cesar Hernandez | WSH | NYM | 4.63 | 0.06 | 5.4% | +1757 |
| Maikel Franco | WSH | NYM | 3.97 | 0.06 | 5.4% | +1757 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | LAD | 4.69 | 0.06 | 5.4% | +1757 |
| Kevin Smith | OAK | DET | 4.05 | 0.06 | 5.4% | +1757 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | TEX | 4.79 | 0.06 | 5.4% | +1757 |
| Royce Lewis | MIN | HOU | 4.03 | 0.06 | 5.4% | +1757 |
