MLB Betting Guide: Friday 5/13/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Tigers Moneyline (-142): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
It's not often we'll be able to say this in 2022 -- the Detroit Tigers have a sizable advantage in today's game. It's mostly due to the pitching matchup. Detroit is giving the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez while the Baltimore Orioles will counter with Jordan Lyles.
In 2021, E-Rod recorded a 3.65 SIERA and 27.4% strikeout rate in what was a career-best season. He's off to a similar type of start this year with Detroit, pitching to a 3.86 SIERA through his first 32 innings.
Lyles, on the other hand, just isn't very good. Since the start of 2021, he owns a 4.63 SIERA and 18.8% strikeout rate. He's given up 1.77 homers per nine in that span.
While both of these offenses are lower-end lineups, the easier matchup certainly belongs with the Tigers' bats, and our model projects them to win by a score of 4.81-4.06. We think Detroit comes out on top 60.4% of the time, and the -142 moneyline implies win odds of 58.9%. That creates a sliver of value on taking the Tigers to win, a bet our numbers rate as a one-star play.
Over 10.0 (-118): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The power of Coors will be tested tonight as it hosts the putrid offense of the Kansas City Royals, an attack that ranks next to last in wOBA (.269).
Greinke has really struggled so far in 2022, posting a 5.21 SIERA and a measly 7.5% strikeout rate. He's also allowing a 40.7% fly-ball rate. Giving up that many balls in play -- and that many flyballs -- at Coors is a death sentence. There's a good chance this goes very poorly for the veteran righty.
Freeland hasn't been as bad as Greinke, but he's also a low-strikeout pitcher. He boasts an 18.6% strikeout rate this year after posting a 20.4% strikeout rate a campaign ago. He does a nice job keeping the ball out of the air (46.3% ground-ball rate since the start of 2021), but Coors still got the best of him last year as he surrendered a .365 wOBA and 1.66 dingers per nine at home.
We project the Colorado Rockies to win by a score of 6.39-5.35. That's 11.74 total runs, and we have the over winning out 60.0% of the time, rating it as a three-star bet.