MLB Betting Guide: Friday 5/20/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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A's Moneyline (+152): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Oakland is giving the ball to Paul Blackburn, who has been a breakout player in the early part of the season. After posting a 4.71 SIERA and 14.9% strikeout rate in 2021, Blackburn is the owner of a sparkling 3.20 SIERA and 20.4% strikeout rate. His 10.6% swinging-strike rate hints that the strikeout rate could even be a bit higher, and with a 1.2 MPH increase in average fastball velocity, Blackburn's breakout seems pretty legit.
Of course, he's got a tall task in front of him against the Angels' offense, but Blackburn just held them to one earned run in 6 2/3 frames last time out.
Chase Silseth is going for the Halos. Silseth has pitched a whole six MLB innings in his career. While he was downright nasty at Double-A this year (37.4% strikeout rate) and gave up only three baserunners in six innings against the A's last week in his MLB debut, Silseth went just 81 pitches. That means we should see plenty of an Angels 'pen that is 12th-worst in reliever xFIP (3.90).
Our model really likes Oakland in this one. We have the underdog A's winning by a score of 4.93-4.51, and we give them win odds of 52.2%. With Oakland priced at +152 on the moneyline, taking them to win outright is a three-star play. We also give them a 69.3% chance to cover as 1.5-run 'dogs on the runline if you want to go that route.
Over 10.0 (-106): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Rockies Moneyline (+120): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Let's start with this: the weather does not look promising for this one. But if it plays, there's value to be had, according to our model.
In his age-35 season and coming off a lost year, Carrasco has mostly been good this campaign, sporting a 3.56 SIERA. However, he's coming off a poor start against a meh Seattle Mariners offense in which he allowed four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings. It was his second pretty bad outing of the year as 12 of the 17 earned runs he's allowed have come in those two starts. In short, he's got a blowup outing in him, and Coors might bring another out of him.
Marquez's 18.9% strikeout rate in the early part of the year is his lowest clip since his debut season in 2016. But most everything else checks out. He's got a 6.5% walk rate and 51.6% ground-ball rate. His 3.77 SIERA is his best mark since 2016. The matchup with a quality New York Mets offense is a tough one, but Marquez can have some success today.
Once Marquez is out of the game, the Mets will take their hacks against a Rox bullpen that carries the second-worst SIERA (4.08). That should help us get to the over.
We project this game to be a 6.29-5.75 win for the Mets. That's 12.04 total runs -- more than 2.0 runs over the listed total. We give the over a 62.6% chance to cash and hand it a four-star rating. It's our best bet of the day.
Even though we have the Rockies losing, we like their chances to win a little more than their +122 moneyline suggests. The +122 price implies odds of 45.0%. Our model thinks the Rox win 46.5% of the time. That's not a huge difference, but it's something.