MLB Betting Guide: Monday 5/23/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Reds Moneyline (+100): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 9.0 (-120): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model sees this game playing out a little differently than oddsmakers do.
Gutierrez has pitched 140 innings at the MLB level, and he owns a 5.22 SIERA and 17.1% strikeout rate. He's allowed a 41.1% hard-hit rate, which has led to 1.67 dingers per nine. The homer problem has really been an issue at home as he's permitted a whopping 2.45 jacks per nine at home in his career.
Smyly hasn't been as bad as Gutierrez, but the lefty is striking out just 17.8% of hitters while surrendering 1.59 homers per nine. A year ago, he gave up 1.92 dingers per nine. Between Smyly and Gutierrez, the ball could be flying out of Great American Ball Park today.
We have the final score being 5.51-5.49 in favor of the Cubs. That's 11.0 runs -- well past the listed 9.0-run total. We rate the over as a three-star bet. And with the Reds at +100 on the moneyline -- compared to the Cubs' price of -118 -- taking the Reds to win outright is a one-star play.
Giants Moneyline (-148): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Giants are up against lefty David Peterson. Peterson has been fairly solid in his young MLB career, sporting a 4.22 SIERA since the start of 2021 (85 2/3 innings). But this is a tough spot for him as the Giants do work versus southpaws, carrying the 12th-best wOBA in the split (.309) with the 4th-highest fly-ball rate (41.4%).
San Fran is turning to Alex Cobb, who has been lights out so far in 2022. Through 25 2/3 frames, Cobb has pitched to a sparkling 2.55 SIERA and 28.1% strikeout rate. His batted-ball profile -- which includes a 20.5% hard-hit rate and 69.4% ground-ball rate -- is to die for. He's punched out 14 and given up three earned runs in his last two home starts (10 1/3 innings).
We have the Giants winning, 4.39-3.67, and give them win odds of 60.2%. The -148 moneyline implies win odds of 59.7%. It's not much, but there is a sliver of value there. We rate the Giants on the moneyline as a one-star bet.