MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 5/31/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies
Giants Moneyline (+116): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The San Francisco Giants have been really tough on lefties this year, and they're facing one today in Ranger Suarez.
After a quality 2021 season (3.51 SIERA), Suarez has regressed in 2022, struggling to a 4.40 SIERA. His strikeout rate has dropped 6.6 percentage points from last year -- down to 19.0% -- while his swinging-strike rate has fallen 3.2 percentage points (to 8.0%). The Giants are going to load their starting lineup with righties, and right-handed bats have put up a .381 wOBA with 1.56 jacks per nine against Suarez this campaign.
As for the San Fran offense, their platoon-heavy ways have led to success against southpaws. In the split this season, they own the fifth-best wOBA (.332) with the highest fly-ball rate (43.2%). Their offense gets a park boost today in Philly, as well.
The Giants are giving the ball to Jakob Junis, who has quietly been pretty good since the start of last year. In that time, he's pitched to a 3.78 SIERA, 22.1% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate, and 10.4% swinging-strike rate.
We project the underdog Giants to win 4.89-4.58 and give them win odds of 51.0%. With San Fran at +116 on the moneyline, taking the Giants to win outright is a one-star play, according to our algorithm.
Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox
Over 8.5 (-122): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model loves the over in this one.
The pitching matchup pits Luis Castillo against Michael Wacha, and the game is being played at hitter-friendly Fenway Park.
Wacha has the easier matchup of the two hurlers, but he's been bad this year, sporting a 4.81 SIERA, 17.1% strikeout rate, and 10.0% walk rate. It could get worse, too, as his 10.5% homer-to-fly-ball rate (HR/FB%) is nearly half of his 19.5% HR/FB% from 2019 to 2021, so he's due to give up more dingers.
Castillo can be nasty when he's on, but he's started slowly this season. His 7.9% swinging-strike rate and 21.4% strikeout rate would be career-worst marks if they hold, and he's lost 1.4 MPH off his average fastball velocity from 2021. He's got a tall task in front of him today against a Boston Red Sox offense that is first in wOBA over the last 30 days (.364) with the eighth-lowest strikeout rate in that stretch (19.7%).
Both pitchers should have a rough time tonight, and with both bullpens in the bottom 12 in xFIP, the hitters should keep raking when Castillo and Wacha are removed from the game.
We project Boston to win by a score of 5.65-5.13. That's 10.78 total runs -- more than two runs over the listed total. We think the over wins out 68.9% of the time and mark it as a four-star wager. It's our top bet of the day.
