MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 6/2/22

Austin Gomber squares off with the Braves today at Coors. Will Gomber help keep the game under its 11.0-run total?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins

Giants Moneyline (+120): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

Our model has this game as close to a coin flip, which creates value on the underdog San Francisco Giants.

San Fran is sending Alex Wood to the bump, and the Miami Marlins have been miserable against southpaws this year. In the split, Miami owns the league's highest strikeout rate (29.7%) and lowest wOBA (.273).

Wood is once again posting good numbers, sporting a 3.40 SIERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, 10.5% swinging-strike rate, and 6.8% walk rate through his first 43 frames of 2022. A year ago, Wood finished with a 3.60 SIERA, 26.0% strikeout rate and 12.5% swinging-strike rate.

All of that bodes well for the Giants. What doesn't is that Sandy Alcantara is pitching for the Marlins.

Over his past four outings, Alcantara has permitted just three total earned runs and punched out 32 in 32 innings. Dude is dealing. But, the Giants are a quality offense. San Fran just touched up Aaron Nola for five earned runs in six innings on Wednesday, and the Giants are fifth in wOBA for the campaign (.324).

We project San Francisco to win this game 47.8% of the time. Their +120 price on the moneyline implies win odds of only 45.5%. Taking the Giants to win is a one-star bet.

Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies

Over 11.0 (-120): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Rockies Moneyline (+126): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

Coors hosted two games yesterday, and there ended up being an eye-popping 40 total runs across the twin bill. The runs should keep flowing today.

Austin Gomber and Ian Anderson are squaring off as the Atlanta Braves come to Coors.

Gomber, a southpaw, owns just a 17.9% strikeout rate this season. He's surrendered 1.50 jacks per nine at Coors in 2022's small sample. He is probably going to have a rough one versus an Atlanta offense that is fourth in wOBA against lefties (.335) and has plated at least six runs in three of its past four games.

Anderson is also having a blah season, punching out only 17.6% of hitters while issuing an 11.3% walk rate. Giving up a lot of balls in play -- in addition to too many free passes -- is a recipe for disaster at Coors.

We project the two offenses to win out as we have the final score being 6.49-5.95 in favor of the Braves. That's 12.44 total runs, and we have the over cashing 56.8% of the time, rating it as a two-star wager.

Our algorithm also sees a sliver of value in taking the Colorado Rockies to win. We give the Rox win odds of 46.6%, but the +126 moneyline implies odds of only 44.2%. It's a one-star bet by our numbers.