MLB Betting Guide: Monday 6/6/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Under 9.0 (-104): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Gray has escaped Coors, and it's helped him post some really nice numbers so far this season, including a 3.63 SIERA and 26.0% strikeout rate. He was electric last time out, fanning 12 over seven innings of one-run ball against a solid Tampa Bay Rays offense. His matchup today is an easier one. The Cleveland Guardians' offense started the year with a bang, but they've come back to reality since, ranking 25th in wOBA (.299) over the past 30 days.
Quantrill is definitely the lesser of the two hurlers in this one. After a decent enough 2021, the righty has a 5.01 SIERA and 15.1% strikeout rate this season. Yuck. But the saving grace for him is a pretty friendly matchup. Over the past 30 days, the Texas Rangers sit 21st in wOBA (.309) with the 5th-highest strikeout rate (24.9%). They own just a .290 wOBA in their travels this year.
Another feather in the under's cap is that both bullpens are good. Cleveland's relievers check in with the 6th-best xFIP (.361) while Texas' bullpen ranks 11th (3.89).
We project the score to be 4.49-3.82 in favor of the Guardians. That's 8.31 runs, and we have the under winning out 52.1% of the time.
Boston Moneyline (+108): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Over the past 30 days, Boston's offense has been remarkably good, boasting a .365 wOBA in that span -- well ahead of the .347 wOBA of the second-best offense in the split. Boston has plated at least five runs in 8 of their past 11 games, including three straight contests in a sweep over the Oakland Athletics in their last series.
They should have success today versus Noah Syndergaard, the owner of a 15.9% strikeout rate. Thanks to a pair of dud outings, Syndergaard has permitted 10 earned runs across his last 11 frames.
Speaking of Oakland, the Red Sox will have a huge travel advantage today as they flew in from the Bay Area last night while the Halos had to come in from Philly.
The Angels' six-game East Coast trip couldn't have gone much worse. They lost all six games to the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies by a combined score of 43-12, and they also lost Taylor Ward to the injured list. LA's offense scored two or fewer runs in five of the six games, and it's not like the Yanks and Phils play in pitcher-friendly parks. And now the Angels have seven games this week versus the red-hot Red Sox and New York Mets.
Michael Wacha, Boston's starter, is far from a stud, but with the Angels holding a meager .231 wOBA over the last seven days, Wacha could have some success.
Boston is priced at +108 on the moneyline, a number which implies win odds of 48.1%. We think the Red Sox win 53.4% of the time, odds befitting of a -115 moneyline price. Taking Boston to win tonight is a two-star bet, according to our model.