MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 6/9/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Oakland Moneyline (+154): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
James Kaprielian is going for the A's, and while he's off to a slow start this campaign, he posted very respectable numbers last year over a larger sample, pitching to a 4.22 SIERA and 24.5% strikeout rate. He can have some success in this matchup as Cleveland's offense ranks only 20th in wOBA (.308) over the past 14 days after starting the year red-hot.
The A's offense will face Konnor Pilkington, a rookie who has generated an impressive 29.1% strikeout rate and 15.3% swinging-strike rate across his first 17 MLB frames. But Pilkington probably isn't as good as those numbers suggest. He mustered a mere 17.5% strikeout rate over 14 1/3 Triple-A innings this year before getting the call, and FanGraphs ranked him as Cleveland's 39th-best prospect.
We project Cleveland to win by a score of 5.03-4.57, but we give the A's win odds of 42.5%. Their +154 moneyline price implies win odds of just 39.4%, so there's a sliver of value in taking Oakland to win outright -- something we rate as a one-star bet.
Over 8.5 (-118): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
With that said, there's also a good chance the Braves' offense nukes JT Brubaker -- and that's exactly why we're on the over.
The Braves are swinging it well, sitting third in wOBA (.357) over the last 14 days. They've scored at least six runs in three of their past four outings, although two of those games were at Coors. Last night they smashed the A's for 13 runs, including a seven-run seventh.
Brubaker doesn't profile as the type of hurler who can shut down Atlanta's high-powered attack. He's been roughed up for 1.84 jacks per nine since the start of last season, and the righty is permitting a 41.4% fly-ball rate this year despite a fairly friendly schedule.
We project the Braves to push across a whopping 6.15 runs, so we don't need Pittsburgh to do much against Fried for the over to cash.
That's good because Fried -- the owner of a 3.25 SIERA, 22.1% strikeout rate, and 12.2% swinging-strike rate -- should roll if he's on. However, baseball is weird, and Fried is running a .270 BABIP that is well below his .300 career average. We project Pittsburgh to scratch out 3.74 runs.
In total, we forecast 9.89 runs to be scored. We give the over a 61.8% chance to win out and mark it as a two-star wager.